Rep. Earl Sears

Last week I participated in a StateImpact Oklahoma forum on the state budget with Rep. Earl Sears, the Chair of the House Appropriations and Budget Committee (R-Bartlesville),  and Sen. Tom Adelson (D-Tulsa).  An audience member asked the legislators what they would do to ensure that more individuals with mental illness were provided treatment in the community rather than in jails and penitentiaries.

Rep. Sears responded by saying that he is very supportive of the work being done by Commissioner Terri White and the Department of Mental Health and Substance Abuse Services to raise awareness about the prevalence and cost of mental illness. In particular, Rep. Sears praised the Department’s ‘Smart on Crime’ initiative‘ that uses evidence-based programs to reduce recidivism and decrease demand for correctional beds. By diverting non-violent offenders into programs such as drug court, mental health court, or other similar programs, Smart on Crime can reduce incarceration and ultimately save substantial tax dollars. The initiative, however, requires an upfront investment estimated at close to $100 million. And, Rep. Sears stated ruefully, we just don’t have $100 million to invest in Smart on Crime. Read the rest of this entry »

Election news may soak up a lot of the attention this year, but we shouldn’t lose sight of the major policy changes set to go into effect no matter who wins in November. High among those are the automatic budget cuts that were part of the deal to increase the federal debt ceiling.

A brief recap: The Budget Control Act created a supercommittee tasked with finding at least $1.2 trillion in deficit reduction measures. When that group failed to reach an agreement, an automatic budget cutting process called sequestration went into effect. Under sequestration, there will be $1.2 trillion in cuts over the next decade, divided 50/50 between domestic and defense spending.

These cuts are scheduled to begin January 2013, with one important caveat. Although the cuts are automatic under existing law, Congress is still free to intervene at any time. Much like with the expiration of the Bush tax cuts, also scheduled for the end of 2012, there is certain to be legislative wrangling. However, President Obama’s promise to veto any attempt to alter the automatic cuts makes it much less likely that they will be stopped.

Assuming sequestration goes forward with no changes, an analysis from FFIS calculates the state-by-state impact of cuts.  The good news is that out of the $7.43 billion in federal grants received by Oklahoma in FY ‘11, $6.25 billion would be exempted from cuts. Exempted programs include Social Security, Medicaid, the Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP), Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF), and SNAP food stamp benefits. Medicare, community health centers, and Indian health services are not exempt, but cuts to these programs would be limited to 2 percent.

Cuts to non-exempted programs mean that overall, Oklahoma would receive $100.3 million less in federal funding compared to FY ’12 and $133.7 million less compared to FY ’11. Fully affected programs would see cuts of about 8.7 percent of their federal funding compared to FY ’12. Read the rest of this entry »

Last week we reported that next year’s revenues are expected to be 7 percent below their levels of six years ago (FY ’07), even though costs are higher due to inflation, population growth, and increased caseloads

Elsewhere, people seem to have read a different budget estimate than the one we saw. Two elements of the discussion show a growing disconnect between Oklahoma’s budgetary politics and reality.

First, Governor Mary Fallin and many others continue to advocate for reduction or elimination of the state income tax. A closer look at the budget shows that, of the $400 million forecast revenue growth from FY ’11 to FY ’13, fully  half comes from the income tax. Overall, the income tax is expected to provide $2.5 billion next year for General Revenue, the HB 1017 Education Reform Fund, and the ROADS Fund, which has helped restore the worst of our roads and bridges. Cutting this vital revenue support makes no budget sense. It also makes no economic sense. Read the rest of this entry »

On Tuesday, the Board of Equalization certified a preliminary estimate of the revenues available for next year’s budget. The numbers confirm that while the worst of the fiscal crisis is over, the state is experiencing a slow, incomplete recovery that will fall far short of restoring key services to pre-downturn levels.

The preliminary FY ’13 estimates, developed by the Oklahoma Tax Commission and Office of State Finance, will form the basis for the Governor’s Executive Budget that will be delivered in early February; the Board will meet again in mid-February to provide revised estimates that will be binding on the 2012 Legislature. As we see in the chart below, collections to the General Revenue (GR) fund are expected to continue their recovery next year from their collapse during the recession of 2008-09. Next year’s GR is estimated at $5,540 million, which is 19.9 percent greater than FY ’10.  Yet next year’s revenues are expected to remain 7 percent below their levels of six years ago (FY ’07), even as the cost of providing services rises due to inflation, population growth, and increased caseloads. Read the rest of this entry »

Today we published “An Incomplete Recovery: The State Budget Outlook 2012-2015.” This is the third of our annual series of forecasts for the state budget. Our goals for this project are both to inform leaders and citizens about the state’s likely fiscal path and to advocate for better fiscal policies and decisions.

“An Incomplete Recovery” sums up the forecast part of the story. These are the key findings:

• The General Revenue Fund (GRF), which makes up 76 percent of the state’s budget in FY ’12, will continue its slow recovery. As we discussed here, GRF revenue has now grown over the prior year for 18 straight months. Unfortunately, revenue still remains 15.9 percent below the peak levels of FY ’09. Our forecasts indicate it will be two more years, FY ’14, before GRF revenues reach pre-recession levels.
• Much of the revenue decline and subsequent slow recovery can be attributed to the severe economic downturn, but not all. Read the rest of this entry »

For the eighteenth consecutive month since May 2010, General Revenue (GR) collections grew compared to the prior year. October GR was $24.3 million, or 6.3 percent, above collections in October 2010. All major taxes brought in more revenue than one year ago.

Read the rest of this entry »

Oklahoma is facing serious challenges when it comes to having the resources to provide the sorts of public services that help create jobs and build a strong economy.

Yet while the need to chart a sound, sustainable fiscal course is urgent, our policymakers too often are flying blind. Legislators routinely make spending and revenue decisions that will have long-term consequences without access to key information about the cost of funding existing obligations in the coming years.

Two recent reports from the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities (CBPP) suggest a pair of sensible budget management tools that Oklahoma should adopt .

• Current services budget: This tool would provide lawmakers and the public with the cost of maintaining today’s level of programs and benefits.
• State PAYGO requirement: It would require all new spending and tax cuts be fully paid for. Read the rest of this entry »

Though revenue collections continue to show steady growth, state budgets remain under great stress. After three successive years of funding cuts, most state agencies are operating this year with appropriations that are at least 10 percent less than prior to the economic downturn. Even if the economy does not slip back into recession, the prospects are dim that revenues will grow sufficiently to restore funding to pre-downturn levels and begin to tackle our long-term obligations.

Budget-cutting efforts in Washington are adding to the perils confronting the state budget. Federal spending has a major impact on both the state economy and the state budget. The federal government spent $38.5 billion in Oklahoma last year, which works out to $10,256 for each resident.  The largest component of federal spending is for direct payments to individuals for Social Security and Medicare, along with salaries and wages to military personnel and other federal employees based in Oklahoma. Read the rest of this entry »

Highway 51 Bridge between Wagoner and Coweta. Photo by flickr user doug_wertman used under a Creative Commons License.

Last week, Gov. Fallin announced a plan to fix the state’s decaying bridges by 2019. The proposal involves putting more money in the ROADS fund, which receives a portion of income tax revenues that would otherwise go to the state’s General Revenue Fund.

OK Policy released a statement on the Governor’s plan that was mentioned by both The Oklahoman and The Tulsa World:

We welcome Governor Fallin’s focus on fixing Oklahoma’s crumbling bridges. However, we must note that her proposal would be paid for entirely by diverting more income tax revenues from an already cash-strapped state budget. At the same time, Governor Fallin and other state leaders are promoting further cuts or outright abolition of the income tax. This should remind us that the income tax remains vital for funding Oklahoma’s needs and that we cannot meet our obligations to pay our bills while undermining our revenue base.

The Oklahoman included a response from the Governor’s spokesperson that the effort to fix bad bridges “does not reflect a lack of commitment to other areas of government.” Fallin’s office told The Oklahoman, “much of the additional transportation funding would come from growth revenue, and Oklahoma has enjoyed nice growth in revenue this fiscal year.” Read the rest of this entry »

[This post has been changed slightly from the original. An earlier version questioned SoonerPoll's reliability without providing evidence to back up that claim.]

As part of the agreement to raise the federal debt ceiling, Congress will vote on a Balanced Budget Amendment this fall. Every Republican Senator has endorsed it. So have many Oklahoma state legislators.

So what’s the problem with a Balanced Budget Amendment?

#1: The BBA endorsed by Senate Republicans is not really about balancing the budget.

In fact, this amendment would make it much harder if not impossible to balance the budget, because it would require any tax increases to have a two-thirds majority in both houses of Congress.

On top of that, it says total spending cannot exceed 18 percent of GDP. To understand how radical this is, we should realize that not a single year’s budget under the George W. Bush or Reagan administrations would be constitutional under this rule. Even Rep. Paul Ryan’s budget plan, which included cuts so unpopular that they were quickly abandoned by Republicans, would have spent too much under this amendment. Read the rest of this entry »

Noble McIntyre is the senior partner and owner of McIntyre Law, an Oklahoma personal injury law firm.

Traffic fatalities in Oklahoma decreased from 765 in 2006, to 627 in 2010, according to the Oklahoma Executive Budget for Fiscal Year 2012 (FY2012). That’s an encouraging trend, but I don’t think anyone would disagree that it could be improved. Unfortunately, the state of Oklahoma seems to feel those numbers are good enough because the budget for the Oklahoma Department of Public Safety (ODPS) is being cut by 3 percent for Fiscal Year 2012. While this may mean a reduction in law enforcement, or fewer personnel working to provide Oklahomans with drivers’ licenses, what’s really going to suffer are public safety education programs, which could further reduce traffic fatalities in the state. Read the rest of this entry »

Once again, OK Policy is getting in touch with its inner dweeb (as if the outer dweeb wasn’t scary enough) and beginning work to develop new four-year forecasts of revenue and budgets for the state of Oklahoma. We’ve written elsewhere of our concerns (and others’) about Oklahoma’s official revenue forecasting and how we’ve designed fiscal policy to depend on poor forecasting. We won’t repeat those arguments now, though we certainly reserve the right to do so later.

Good forecasting starts with a sober look back at previous efforts. We first undertook the forecasting project in 2009, in response to rapidly falling state revenues. Our first forecast brief, released in November of that year, used six different models to forecast state General Revenue Fund (GRF) revenues for four years (here’s a summary of how those forecasts are developed). With the books now complete on FY ’11, we can look back to judge how we did and compare our performance with the official projections certified by the Board of Equalization. Read the rest of this entry »