Not surprisingly, the report showed that 2009 was a rough year. Across the nation, state personal income declined by an average of 2.6 percent. As we discuss in the April edition of Numbers You Need, our monthly bulletin of key economic and budget data, in Oklahoma, per capital personal income (PCPI) fell by 1.9 percent, from $35,969 in 2008 to $35,268 in 2009. This drop ranked Oklahoma 22nd among the states in percent change from 2008 to 2009. West Virginia saw the strongest growth in 2009 and was one of only three states, along with Maine and Maryland, that registered positive growth. Wyoming saw the steepest decline, -5.9 percent, with Nevada, South Dakota, Idaho and Arizona rounding out the bottom five.

Oklahoma’s per capita personal income of $35,238 in 2009 ranked 34th among the states and was 90.0 percent of the national PCPI of $40,168. Oklahoma fell one spot from its 2008 ranking of 33rd (note that the preliminary numbers for 2008 showed Oklahoma as 28th highest, as we discussed in this blog post, but were revised downwards). In 2009, Oklahoma placed just ahead of North Carolina, Tennessee and Michigan and just behind Ohio, Louisiana and Oregon. Among neighboring states, Oklahoma’s per capita personal income is comparable to Missouri (30th) and Texas (29th), significantly below Kansas (23rd) and Colorado (13th), but well ahead of New Mexico (42nd) and Arkansas (45th).

Despite the drop from 2008 to 2009, it was a prosperous decade for Oklahoma. From 2000-2009, Oklahoma’s PCPI grew by 44.5 percent in constant dollars (not adjusted for inflation), or an average annual rate of growth of 4.2 percent. This far outpaced the nation as a whole, which saw PCPI grow by 31.4 percent overall, or an annual average rate of growth of 3.1 percent. Oklahoma’s growth for the decade was 9th highest in the nation. The fastest growing states in the 2000’s were Wyoming, North Dakota, Louisiana and New Mexico, while Colorado, Georgia and Michigan saw the decade’s weakest growth. Among its neighbors, only New Mexico grew more quickly than Oklahoma; Oklahoma outperformed Kansas (21st), Texas (29th), Missouri (31st), Arkansas (41st) and Colorado (48th).

It’s worth recalling that per capita income, which measures total income divided by the population, is only one way of calculating the state’s wealth.  In the last Census Bureau report, Oklahoma’s median household, the one exactly at the mid-way point along the income ladder,  had income of  $45,494 for the two-year average of 2007-08, which ranked 39th in the nation. Meanwhile, the state’s poverty rate in 2008 was 15.9 percent, a full 2.7 percentage points above the national average and the 8th highest rate in the nation.  Do we yet have a good explanation for why a state that has climbed to among the middle rung of states in terms of the average income of its population continues to suffer from such persistently high rates of poverty and fare so poorly on so many indicators of personal and social well-being?

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Preliminary results for the school year finished in May, 2008-09, show a headcount enrollment (in which all students, part- and full-time alike, are counted as one) of 256,012. That’s down slightly from the previous year and the second lowest enrollment in the last five years.

Overall enrollment is down 1.5 percent from the peak levels of 2003-04 and 2004-05. The decline is all at the four-year college level, where enrollment is down 2.4 percent over five years. Two-year college enrollment has risen slightly, 1.6 percent, in the same period.

Why is this bad news? Because we are not making a dent in our state’s already low education level. That makes it harder to move up the income scale and to attract the high-skilled jobs we’ll need in the future.

In 2006, Oklahoma ranked 39th among the states with only 22.9 percent of adults over 25 holding a four-year college degree. Not coincidentally, we ranked 41st in economic output per person and 12th in percentage of residents in poverty. Those numbers will always be entwined. We must work harder on the one we can affect directly.

There is, however, a glimmer of hope. Earlier this month the Oklahoma State Regents for Higher Education announced a slight increase in the percentage of high school graduates attending college, now 52.8 percent. There’s also some evidence that enrollment is higher at many state colleges and universities this fall than the last few years. Time will tell whether those numbers pan out and whether it’s any more than a reaction to a tough job market.

Meanwhile, we can and should think hard about how we can do better. We encourage the regents, campus leaders, and state legislators to examine all the factors that could contribute to our low educational attainment–college funding and affordability, high school dropout and achievement levels, better guidance for students, and culture. We can do better and we’ll have to if we want our young people–and our economy–to prosper.

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As can be seen from the graph, this leveling in the number of prisoners is a departure from the trend of recent years. From 2000-2007, the inmate count grew by an annual average rate of 1.5 percent. The slowdown was unexpected: when MGT of America released its major audit of the Department of Corrections in early 2008, the inmate population was projected to grow to 27,035 by the end of FY ’09, on its way to a total of just under 29,000 prisoners by the end of FY ’16. In both news accounts and follow-up conversations, DOC Director Justin Jones attributes the slowdown to two factors: a reduction in the number of offenders being sent to prison for probation violations due to creative policies being implemented by DAs in Oklahoma County and elsewhere; and new policies that allow prisoners not to lose earned credit towards release for certain misconduct.

In 2007, the most recent year for which national data was available, Oklahoma imprisoned 665 people per 100,000 population, compared to the national average of 506. Oklahoma’s female incarceration rate that year was more than twice the national average and highest in the nation. Our heavy reliance on incarceration has social, economic, and fiscal consequences that will remain an ongoing challenge for policymakers and communities to address in the years ahead. However, that progress is already being made in keeping in leveling off the inmate population deserves to be noted and celebrated.

We hope you’ll check out the full edition of August’s Numbers You Need.

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• 39,900 fewer Oklahomans employed;
• A 77 percent increase in the number of unemployed;
• More than three times as many Oklahomans receiving Unemployment Insurance benefits;
• Over 51,000 more people receiving food assistance (Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, formerly food stamps) benefits and almost 26,000 more people on Medicaid (April 2009 vs. April 2008);
• State General Revenue collections down 30 percent (June 2009 vs. June 2008)

The weak economy continues to place great strains on both our private and public safety net support systems.  Fortunately, the federal stimulus bill included increases in both Unemployment Insurance and food assistance benefits, as well as help for states to protect Medicaid health insurance coverage and avoid layoffs of teachers and other public sector employees. This  provides crucial help to families in need and keep dollars circulating through the economy at a time when state resources are declining.

We hope you’ll check out Numbers You Need and post a comment sharing your thoughts.

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Numbers You Need is a monthly publication from OK Policy that presents key data on the state’s economy, work force, human services, and budget in one concise, easy-to-read fact sheet.

The forecasters may be predicting an economic turnaround ahead, but the May edition of Numbers You Need shows we haven’t turned the corner quite yet. The state’s seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate hit 5.9 percent in March, an increase of 0.4 percentage point compared to the previous month and 2.6 percentage points compared to a year ago. Oklahoma is now shedding jobs at the same rate as the national average. Meanwhile, state revenue collections continued their free fall in April, coming in 21.7 percent below last year’s amount and 21.6 percent below the certified estimate.

Some other key findings from May’s edition:

• As the downturn deepens, participation in the Food Stamp program and Medicaid continues to grow, but fewer people are receiving TANF cash assistance benefits (see our blog entry “What if we threw a recession and no one showed up at the welfare office?“);
• The Consumer Price Index grew by a modest 0.3 percent in March in the South region, but was down 0.3 percent over the past 12 months;
• Bankruptcies in Oklahoma were up 23.0 percent in 2008 compared to 2007; and
• 56 percent of Oklahoma public school children were enrolled in the free- and reduced-meal program in 2008-09 (see our blog entry “Feeding the Children” for a full discussion).

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April’s edition of Numbers You Need provides further evidence of the worsening economic situation in Oklahoma and the nation. The state’s seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate hit 5.5 percent in February, which is up from 5.0 percent in January but still well below the national rate of 8.1 percent. Personal income for the final quarter of 2008 rose by 0.1 percent in Oklahoma and fell by 0.2 percent nationally. Meanwhile, state revenue collections in March fell steeply for the third straight month, coming in 19.1 percent below last year’s amount and 17.2 percent below the certified estimate. The silver lining may be that inflation in the South region rose by 0.5 percent in February due in large part to rising energy prices, taming fears of deflation and providing some hope that the oil and gas sector may be rebounding.

 Some other key findings from April’s edition:

• The number of Oklahomans participating in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance program (formerly Food Stamps) rose for the tenth consecutive month in January and was up 6.6 percent for the year; and
• The number of children receiving subsidized child care through DHS fell by 2.1 percent in January, perhaps reflecting fewer work opportunities for low-income parents.

 Click here to access the full two-page fact sheet.

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But rapidly increasing unemployment and stagnant incomes are not having any comparable impact on TANF, the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families program, which provides monthly cash assistance benefits to children and adults in very low-income households. The number of persons receiving TANF payments in January 2009 was 19,394, down slightly (-2.0 percent) from the same month in 2008. The number of adults receiving assistance has increased by 70 from a year ago, but there are 480 fewer children and 240 fewer overall families participating. This suggests a decline in child-only cases, where payment is made for a child but not for an adult (the parent or grandparent may be receiving disability payments or a pension, or may otherwise be ineligible).

The TANF cash assistance program has been withering away for years in Oklahoma. Stringent work requirements, strict sanctions policies, lifetime eligibility limits, and the concerted effort of Oklahoma DHS to divert people away from the program have all played a part. In 1993, at the peak of the old AFDC program, there was a monthly average of 43,086 adults receiving a cash assistance check. In 2001, after welfare reform, the monthly average of adult recipients was 7,730; in 2008, 3,218. Oklahoma has not just fulfilled President Clinton’s pledge to “end welfare as we know it.” With the program now serving less than 3,500 single parents, and showing few signs of expanding as the economy contracts, it may be fairer to say that we have ended welfare, period.

Many people who supported welfare reform admitted that we need to provide short-term cash assistance for single adults who can’t work because they are caring for children, in school or training, or dealing with other barriers to finding a job. The economic downturn is likely to hit young adults with limited education, skills, and experience particularly hard. Whether TANF proves able to provide a short-term safety net for those single parents, and what happens to that population if it doesn’t, are questions that desperately need to be asked.

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March’s edition of Numbers You Need provides further evidence of the deteriorating economic situation in Oklahoma. The state’s seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate hit 5.0 percent in January, up from 4.6 percent in December. Building permits issued in the final quarter of 2008 were down 44 percent compared to 2007, with the three month total representing the lowest level of activity since at least 1995. Meanwhile, state revenue collections in February fell steeply for the second straight month, coming in 21.6 percent below last year’s amount and 30.4 percent below the certified estimate.

Some other key findings in March’s edition:

• The number of Oklahomans receiving Food Stamps rose for the ninth consecutive month in December;
• An average of 4,881 initial claims for Unemployment Insurance benefits were filed in January, an increase of 149 percent compared to September 2008; and
• The Consumer Price Index rose by 0.4 percent in January, reversing three straight months of declining prices.

Click here to access the full two-page fact sheet.