A key question in the income tax debate has been whether tax cut supporters were taking a “responsible” approach in their proposals. They have worked hard to convince Oklahomans that we can afford tax cuts without disrupting core services.

Revenue growth triggers are the latest gambit in this effort. Under triggers, automatic tax cuts would go into effect whenever revenues increase by a certain percentage. Supporters say that triggers promote fiscal responsibility because they prevent us from cutting taxes during a recession.

The word out of the Capitol is that Governor Fallin is pushing to include triggers in the final proposal that comes out of conference committee. Triggers were part of the Governor’s original plan, and they have been added by the Legislature to two other bills.

We previously discussed why triggers are bad policy in general. An examination of the specific language in these triggers reveals numerous ways that they would not protect us from cutting taxes when we cannot afford it. Read the rest of this entry »

In a recent editorial, the Tulsa World questioned the call that is frequently heard to ‘right-size’ state government. After three successive years of deep cuts to public services, the editorial asked ‘where does it end?’:

But how do we define right-sizing? Is government the right size if there aren’t enough correctional officers to handle prison unrest? Is it right-sized if children are crowded into classrooms? Is it the right size if sex offenders cannot be properly supervised? Is it the right size when DHS caseloads are so high that the vulnerable slip through the cracks?

The chart below provides numerical support for the idea that state government has shrunk dramatically in recent years. As a share of state personal income, state appropriations are at their lowest level in at least three decades. In FY 2011, the state appropriated budget of $6.77 billion represented just 4.9 percent of  state personal income ($137.8 billion). This is almost a full percentage point below the historical average of 5.8 percent over the past 25 years. This year, with appropriations having been cut by a further 2.4 percent and state personal income rising, the share will fall even further.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis (State Personal Income), OK Policy (State Appropriations)

As we showed in an earlier blog post, state tax collections are also at an historic low and are failing to keep pace with growing costs and growing needs. Rather than being bloated and in need of right-sizing downward, the question we must now face is whether years of underfunding have shrunk state government to the point where it is no longer capable of performing the core functions that Oklahomans expect: educating our children, training our workforce, maintaining our infrastructure, protecting our communities, and aiding our most vulnerable family members and neighbors

After three straight years of budget cuts, funding for public education in Oklahoma is in dire straits.  This year’s appropriation to the Department of Education is $254 million, or 10.0 percent, less than it was in 2009.  In the past three years, funding to school districts through the state aid formula, which funds the basic operating costs of schools, has been slashed by $222 million, while public schools enrollment has grown by 22,000 students.  According to the most recent data, the number of teachers was cut by over 1,000 between 2010 and 2011, and this year it is likely there are fewer teachers still. Even though schools have tried to manage cuts while protecting class sizes, simple math dictates that more students and fewer teachers is leading to more kids per class.

Meanwhile, the Legislature has also cut the activities budget for common education, which funds health care costs for teachers and support staff, as well as a portion of retirement costs and programs that aim to improve teacher quality and student performance. This year,  the Department of Education was forced to eliminate or drastically cut a slew of programs, including adult education, alternative education, Great Expectations, A+ Schools, and Literacy First. With its activities budget slashed, the department also opted not to allocate $11.4 million to fund the $5,000 annual bonus promised to some 3,300 National Board Certified teachers and saved $37 million by funding only ten months of teacher and support staff health care benefits for current year contracts. Outrage in the education community over this failure to meet the state’s commitments on health care costs and board certified teachers led some elected officials to promise to make up the funding as mid-year supplementals to this year’s budget. Read the rest of this entry »

Even as the economy recovers, it’s become increasingly apparent that there is no end in sight to Oklahoma’s budget woes. Oklahoma has seen three straight years of budget cuts, and according to one House leader, we may be in for a fourth. At best, this year’s budget will stay flat, which means we can accomplish less due to inflation, reductions in federal assistance, and continued deterioration of equipment and infrastructure that we can’t afford to fix. It also means the damage caused by previous cuts will continue unchecked.

We provided overviews on previous rounds of budget cuts here, here, and here. This is an update on a few more of the ways we’re falling behind in public safety, child welfare, education, health, and other areas:

Public Safety

• The number of state troopers on Oklahoma highways is at its lowest level in 22 years. Without funds to train new troopers, the problem is likely to get worse because more than 1/4th of existing troopers are already eligible for retirement.
• The Oklahoma State Bureau of Investigation has frozen hiring with 35 vacant jobs, and Director Stan Florence said further cuts would lead to furloughs. Inadequate staff has forced the agency to reduce investigations of the theft of equipment from oil and gas fields and curtail other investigative work. Read the rest of this entry »

Governor Mary Fallin

In her State of the State address, Governor Fallin laid out numerous areas where Oklahoma needs to invest to fix serious problems. She mentioned the shortage of troopers on the highways, the millions still owed to local governments to reimburse emergency expenses, the dilapidated state capitol and medical examiner’s office, crumbling bridges, high infant mortality, a beleaguered foster care system, and unfunded teacher health benefits.

These diverse problems have a common denominator: they are all substantially caused by inadequate funding to core public services after three straight years of budget cuts. Rather than setting a bold course for Oklahoma’s future, we are playing catch-up just to repair what we have allowed to fall apart.

In the same speech, Governor Fallin proposed a huge cut to the personal income tax. The plan is estimated to cost $350 million in the first full year. It also includes triggers to automatically cut taxes again any time the budget begins to recover.

The effect is that for the foreseeable future, tax cuts are shoved to the front of the line. It won’t matter what problems or responsibilities we face as a state. It won’t matter if our infant mortality stays high, if our water isn’t safe, if our schools are failing, if our communities are devastated by extreme weather. Whenever there is additional revenue, the number one priority will always be tax cuts. Read the rest of this entry »

At a time when seemingly endless budget cuts are squeezing our public schools to the breaking point, the Coalition for Community Schools continues to advance a rich and comprehensive approach to education.  Their vision is one in which schools are not just places for kids to learn during the school-week, but also community centers open to everyone – all day, every day – making the school the hub of the community.  If you’re having a hard time envisioning how a ‘community school’ differs from the norm, watch this short video about Tulsa’s Area Community Schools Initiative (TACSI).  The transformational potential of this approach is hard to miss.

View other clips from OKPolicy’s “Watch This’ video series:

What is an IDA?

Elderly parole

Long term unemployment, 1967-2011

Packed Oklahoma prisons, rising costs

What’s up this week at Oklahoma Policy Institute? The Weekly Wonk is dedicated to this week’s events, publications, and blog posts.

This week OK Policy explained what federal budget cuts could mean for Oklahoma.  Doug Hall of the Economic Policy Institute underscored the urgency of fixing America’s crumbling infrastructure.  Our director David Blatt spoke at a StateImpact Oklahoma forum about why proposals to reduce or eliminate the income tax would effectively raise taxes for most Oklahomans.

Also this week, we featured remarks by Maryland Governor Martin O’Malley on how health care reform improves business competitiveness.  We posted event information about the first annual Grandparenting Workshop at Oklahoma State University.

Numbers of the Day

• $107 – Average tax increase on sixty percent of Oklahoma households under a legislative proposal to eliminate a slate of broad-based tax credits and exemptions.
• 8,600 – Number of jobs lost in state and local government in Oklahoma over 2010.
• $22,007 – Annual average wage for home health aides in Oklahoma, just below the federal poverty level for a family of four in 2010, $22,050
• 11 percent – Percentage of ex-offenders released in Oklahoma who were re-incarcerated for technical violations of their probation/parole in 2004, up from 3 percent in 1999.
• $34 million – Amount needed to repair sewer lines and make major improvements to two facilities slated for closure that house medically fragile, mentally disabled Oklahoma residents.

In The Know, Policy Notes

• The Center for Economic and Policy Research shares five reasons we should be concerned about the rising share of low-wage work.
• Touchstone examines the austerity curve, or the point at which cutting government spending becomes self-defeating because it lowers growth, depresses tax revenues, and pushes up social security spending by more than the government is cutting.
• The Century Foundation shares a series of graphs that bust the myths about food stamps.
• The Kaiser Family Foundation released their annual survey of employer health benefits, with a detailed look at trends in employer-sponsored health coverage.

Arthur Laffer

Some Oklahoma politicians have trumpeted a report by economist Arthur Laffer to claim that eliminating the state income tax will fuel an economic boom. Laffer is best known for the Laffer Curve, which he famously sketched on a napkin while meeting with Dick Cheney in a hotel bar. It went on to form the basis of the Reagan administration’s trickle-down economics.

The Laffer Curve makes an obvious point: government revenues peak at a tax rate somewhere between zero and one-hundred percent. In the lower half of the curve, raising taxes will increase revenue, but go too high and the reduced economic activity due to excessive taxation will result in lower revenue.

The argument was not original to Laffer. It had been stated previously by thinkers ranging from 14th Century Arab philosopher Ibn Khaldun to John Maynard Keynes, the founder of modern macroeconomics. What made this idea influential in recent decades was not any special insight into economics, but its powerful appeal for politicians. Rather than explaining how tax cuts (popular) would be paid for by budget cuts or increases in other taxes (unpopular), they could simply claim that the tax cuts would pay for themselves. Read the rest of this entry »

James W. Utterback, Ph.D. is President of Seminole State College and Chair of the Oklahoma Educational Television Authority Board. The opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not reflect the opinions of OETA or any other group or business.

In his acceptance of the Republican Presidential nomination in 1880, James A. Garfield stated that, “Next in importance to freedom and justice is popular education, without which neither freedom nor justice can be permanently maintained.”  The Oklahoma Educational Television Authority (OETA) plays a vital role in enhancing the public education mission of our state.

As Chairman of the Board for OETA, it has been exciting to witness over 24,000 Oklahoma families step forward to donate in excess of $2 million annually to support Oklahoma’s only statewide public television network.  An additional $1.5 million is donated annually by Oklahoma foundations and corporations. In spite of such overwhelming grassroots support, a small group of Oklahoma Legislators are calling for the elimination of funding for OETA.  As an educator and a concerned citizen who cares deeply about the future of our state, I believe this action would be reckless and irresponsible. Read the rest of this entry »

[This post has been changed slightly from the original. An earlier version questioned SoonerPoll's reliability without providing evidence to back up that claim.]

As part of the agreement to raise the federal debt ceiling, Congress will vote on a Balanced Budget Amendment this fall. Every Republican Senator has endorsed it. So have many Oklahoma state legislators.

So what’s the problem with a Balanced Budget Amendment?

#1: The BBA endorsed by Senate Republicans is not really about balancing the budget.

In fact, this amendment would make it much harder if not impossible to balance the budget, because it would require any tax increases to have a two-thirds majority in both houses of Congress.

On top of that, it says total spending cannot exceed 18 percent of GDP. To understand how radical this is, we should realize that not a single year’s budget under the George W. Bush or Reagan administrations would be constitutional under this rule. Even Rep. Paul Ryan’s budget plan, which included cuts so unpopular that they were quickly abandoned by Republicans, would have spent too much under this amendment. Read the rest of this entry »

Now that default has been averted and the agreement to raise the federal debt limit has been signed into law, attention here in Oklahoma has shifted, at least temporarily, from politics back to the weather (or, from the debt ceiling to the sweat ceiling). Although the full implications of the agreement will not be understood for months, or years, it is clear that the deal to lower the deficit will have far-reaching consequences for federal and state budgets and the economy. For those looking for concise analysis of  the agreement’s  fiscal and economic implications, here are a few pieces worth reading:

• Good short summaries of the basic mechanics of the deal are provided by this White House fact sheet and by the Center for American Progress; the full bill and accompanying materials can be found here.
• In a statement by Robert Greenstein, the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities argues that “the deal places the nation on a disturbing policy course and sets what may become important precedents that are cause for serious concern.” The Center is especially worried that the deficit reduction framework set up by the agreement paves the way for cuts of “an unprecedented depth” to discretionary spending programs and makes a balanced approach that includes additional revenues an unlikely outcome. Read the rest of this entry »

Anyone following the news finds daily stories of the public sector under assault.  Across the nation and in Oklahoma, cuts to state government continue into their third straight year, while in Washington, the rhetoric around budget cuts has reached a fevered pitch, much of it couched in terms of the need to downsize government to allow the private sector to thrive. We thought this an opportune time to re-post a blog entry that we first ran last summer that takes aim at the idea that cutting government jobs and spending  best serves the private sector.

Last month I gave a presentation to a meeting of the State Chamber of Commerce along with a representative from another state policy organization.  I was struck, and frankly dismayed, by the extent to which my co-presenter  spoke as if government and the private sector were opposing forces pitted against one another in a  zero-sum competition. In this view, taxes assessed on businesses and households extract dollars away from productive consumption and investment in the private sector in order to “grow government”.

It is certainly true that a vibrant private sector will always be the main engine of economic growth in a capitalist economy. Public spending can at times crowd out private investment, although, as economists like Brad DeLong argue, during times of sluggish economic growth like the present,  government spending can be vital for keeping the economy from grinding to a halt and for incentivizing private investment. But more fundamentally, this polarizing conception of “government versus the private sector” misses the important ways in which businesses, as well as families and communities, cannot thrive without a strong and effective public sector. You cannot have a vibrant, productive private sector without state and local government helping to:

• Educate our children and train our workforce;
• Police our neighborhoods, investigate crimes, and detain lawbreakers; Read the rest of this entry »