The New York Times this weekend ran an important feature on one important and disturbing sign of the impact of the recession – the large and growing population of food stamp recipients that report zero household income:

About six million Americans receiving food stamps report they have no other income, according to an analysis of state data collected by The New York Times. In declarations that states verify and the federal government audits, they described themselves as unemployed and receiving no cash aid — no welfare, no unemployment insurance, and no pensions, child support or disability pay. Read the rest of this entry »

If  you did not see last Sunday’s Tulsa World, it is well worth checking out their front-page profile of families hit by the economic downturn, titled “Faces of the Recession”. Reporters Ginnie Graham and Mike Averill tell the stories of six families hit by job losses who are doing everything in their capacities to stay afloat in these rough financial waters. The article is particularly compelling in portraying how the recession is hitting families that were formerly anchored in the middle class, leading many to seek out assistance from government, private charities, and family members to put food on the table and a roof over their heads. For those seeking assistance for the first time, in particular, the state’s 211 Helpline service (the link is to Tulsa 211, one of six regional centers that cover the state) is invaluable in helping connect families in need with social service providers who are available to lend a hand.

The Oklahoman recently ran an editorial calling attention to the especially heavy toll that the current recession is having on male workers nationally and here in Oklahoma. A new issue brief from Economic Policy Institute, using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and Current Population Survey, provides some startling state-level data that bears out this point.

In the 4th quarter of 2007, which marked the onset of the national recession, Oklahoma’s unemployment rate was 3.4 percent for men and 4.2 percent for women. In the just-completed 2nd quarter of 2009, while the female unemployment rate had inched up a mere 0.2 percentage points to 4.6 percent, the male unemployment rate had soared 4.2 percentage points to 7.6 percent. Thus,  over a span of eighteen months, the job market switched from one where women were somewhat likelier than men to be unemployed to one where the male unemployment rate is a full three percentage points higher than that of women.

Oklahoma’s gender profile mirrors the national picture but in somewhat more extreme form.  Nationally, unemployment rates for females at the start of the recession were 0.2 percentage points higher than for males (4.9 percent compared to 4.7 percent), a smaller gender gap than in Oklahoma. Today, the male unemployment rate for men nationally is 3 percentage points higher for men than for women (10.7 percent compared to 7.7 percent), the same size gap as in Oklahoma.

The Oklahoman’s explanation for what has happened is persuasive and is echoed by others who have reported on the subject :

The recession is hitting hardest on sectors over which men have traditionally dominated — construction, heavy manufacturing, mining, etc. — and hitting the lightest on sectors where women have traditionally ruled — education, health care, government service.

Looking ahead, the gender gap is expected to worsen as unemployment levels remain high over the next year. EPI’s report includes projections for the 2nd quarter of 2010, when economic forecasters expect unemployment to peak. They predict Oklahoma’s unemployment rate will rise to 7.3 percent for all workers; for men, unemployment is projected to be 9.0 percent (a 1.2 percentage point increase from 2009), compared to 5.3 percent for women (a 0.7 percentage point increase from 2009).

EPI’s report also shows that ethnic minorities – African Americans and Hispanics – are being hurt worse than Whites during the downturn and that these disparities will also worsen over the next year. Due to inadequate sample sizes, EPI was unable to provide estimates of unemployment rates by ethnicity for Oklahoma.

The loss of male jobs during this downturn is likely to have far-reaching consequences for the economy, communities, and families that will take a long time to fully understand and address. Will we see  more men move into traditionally female occupations in the education and health care sectors? Will we see shifts in family formation and child-rearing roles if more women become the primary breadwinners? Let’s hope that policymakers start soon to think about these questions and begin to think about crafting solutions to ensure that the economy that emerges out of this downturn is one that provides opportunities for all.

This week we released the July edition of Numbers You Need, our monthly bulletin of key economic and budget trends.  The monthly report contained some glimmers of good news, as the state’s unemployment rate rose by a relatively modest 0.1 percentage point to 6.3 percent in May, while rising energy prices (of benefit to Oklahoma) contributed to a modest increase in the Consumer Price Index. However, if we step back and compare where we are now to our situation 12 months ago, we get a sense of the extent of the  economic downturn’s toll on the state’s economy and population. Compared to 12 months ago, we find (numbers compare May 2009 to May 2008, except where otherwise noted):

• 39,900 fewer Oklahomans employed;
• A 77 percent increase in the number of unemployed;
• More than three times as many Oklahomans receiving Unemployment Insurance benefits;
• Over 51,000 more people receiving food assistance (Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, formerly food stamps) benefits and almost 26,000 more people on Medicaid (April 2009 vs. April 2008);
• State General Revenue collections down 30 percent (June 2009 vs. June 2008)

The weak economy continues to place great strains on both our private and public safety net support systems.  Fortunately, the federal stimulus bill included increases in both Unemployment Insurance and food assistance benefits, as well as help for states to protect Medicaid health insurance coverage and avoid layoffs of teachers and other public sector employees. This  provides crucial help to families in need and keep dollars circulating through the economy at a time when state resources are declining.

We hope you’ll check out Numbers You Need and post a comment sharing your thoughts.

Across the nation, the deep, prolonged economic recession is putting great strains on state Unemployment Insurance (UI) programs. Oklahoma is hardly immune from these challenges, but our problems are less severe than elsewhere. The combination of having entered the recession with our UI program in good fiscal health, the relative mildness of the downturn in Oklahoma, and the Legislature’s willingness to do what needed to be done to get the boost of available federal stimulus dollars should help  allow the state’s UI program to continue to provide a temporary source of income until employment prospects improve.

As everyone knows, the June jobs report was brutal – the nation lost an additional 467,000 jobs, the unemployment rate reached 9.5 percent, and the total number of unemployed Americans hit 14.7 million, an all-time high. State-level figures for June have not yet been released, but May did bring relatively good news for Oklahoma, as the state’s 0.1 percent increase in the unemployment rate (from 6.2 percent to 6.3 percent) was far less severe than in prior months or in the nation as a whole. Still, the state saw its number of unemployed hit 111,700 for the month, an increase of nearly 50,000 compared to a year prior. The unemployment rate has now topped 7.5 percent in 19 counties, led by Hughes County, whose jobless rate reached 10.9 percent in May. The number of Oklahomans claiming Unemployment Insurance (UI) benefits rose to just under 50,000 in May, a 208 percent increase compared to May 2008. Almost 10,000 long-term unemployed workers in the state who have already exhausted their initial period of UI eligibility have now become eligible for an additional 13 weeks of benefits.

Such developments are putting enormous stress on state unemployment insurance systems. Every state has an Unemployment Insurance Trust Fund which collects revenues and pays out benefits. When fewer workers are employed, states pay out more in benefits while taking in less in UI tax collections. Yet while Oklahoma’s Trust Fund balance has declined over the past year, we are in a much stronger situation than most states.

Read the rest of this entry »

As the worst recession in a quarter-century continues to unfold, insightful and moving stories of its impact on individuals, families, communities, and organizations are appearing regularly in the media. Periodically, we are using this space to call attention to notable national and local stories that we think deserve a wide audience.

Sunday’s New York Times magazine cover story explored the devastating impact that the collapse of the U.S. automobile industry is having on the Black middle class in Detroit and surrounding areas. Since the 1930s, the Big Three automobile companies have provided a ladder to the middle-class for tens of thousands of African Americans in Detroit and surrounding areas, offering high-paying blue-collar jobs and the opportunity to become homeowners and send their children to good schools and colleges. Now, plant closures, layoffs and buyouts in the auto sector are leaving these workers without jobs, at risk of losing their homes, and struggling to avoid losing hope. Writing of Marvin Powell, a 13-year GM assembly-line worker who earns $28/hr at a plant in Pontiac that is set to shut down before the end of this year, author Jonathan Mahler asks:

What if you were 38 and had spent the last 12 years doing one thing for a company and an industry that allowed your predecessors to escape the Jim Crow South, that gave generations of black workers a shot at dignity and their rightful place in the American middle class, that allowed you to buy a decent home in a neighborhood right next door to white families who had fled your city years before? Maybe it wasn’t the job you dreamed of when you were 20, but it was what you did and what your father did and what you and almost everyone around you knew, and it had never failed you before. What would you do? How would you prepare for the loss of all that?

Read the rest of this entry »

Sunday’s issue of The Oklahoman featured a compelling report by Paula Burkes on the struggles of several Oklahomans who have unexpectedly found themselves among the ranks of the unemployed, losing long-time jobs and struggling to regain their footing in an extremely unforgiving labor market.  Each of the five profiled unemployed workers are struggling to keep themselves and their families afloat, while hoping that their job prospects improve quickly. In the case of Cindy Mason, who was laid-off four months ago after 29 years working for an Oklahoma City church, the change in circumstance has been abrupt and frightening:

“I’m scared spotless,” Mason, a homeowner, said. Given only two months’ severance, she pulled some money from her retirement account, canceled her YMCA membership and other nonessentials from her budget, is working a temporary job and looking like crazy for employment…

“I don’t want to lose my house, want to pay my bills and keep up my insurance,” she said.

The same day, The New York Times ran an opinion column by Barbara Ehrenreich, the author of the 2001 memoir Nickled and Dimed: On (Not) Getting By in America. Ehrenreich revisits some of the low-wage workers and communities she profiled in her book and finds that, while the media has tended to focus on the emergence of the “nouveau poor” among those who were previously affluent before the recent economic collapse, for the “already poor” and the “always poor”, this recession has been especially tough.  She cites data showing that blue-collar unemployment is increasing three times as quickly as white-collar unemployment, which is pushing many people who were already scraping to get by during the good times right off the cliff of financial stability.

Read the rest of this entry »

Recently, The New York Times had a front-page article spotlighting the extent to which victims of the economic downturn are able to access public benefits that are part of the nation’s safety net.  Most programs, including Unemployment Insurance, food stamps, Medicaid, public housing, and cash assistance, operate as state-federal partnerships in which eligibility rules and administrative practices can vary greatly from one state to another, as well as from one program to another.  This can lead to major disparities in program participation rates across states. For example, 67 percent of the unemployed receive jobless benefits in New Jersey and Idaho, but just 25 percent in Texas.

The Times presents a 50-state table of participation rates in six public benefit programs. Their data shows that Oklahoma is slightly above the national average in the share of eligible individuals receiving food stamp benefits (69 percent compared to 67 percent nationally); the share of eligible households receiving public housing assistance (32 percent compared to 30 percent nationally), and share of uninsured low-income children covered by public health care programs (77 percent compared to 73 percent nationally).

Read the rest of this entry »

Some other key findings from May’s edition:

• As the downturn deepens, participation in the Food Stamp program and Medicaid continues to grow, but fewer people are receiving TANF cash assistance benefits (see our blog entry “What if we threw a recession and no one showed up at the welfare office?“);
• The Consumer Price Index grew by a modest 0.3 percent in March in the South region, but was down 0.3 percent over the past 12 months;
• Bankruptcies in Oklahoma were up 23.0 percent in 2008 compared to 2007; and
• 56 percent of Oklahoma public school children were enrolled in the free- and reduced-meal program in 2008-09 (see our blog entry “Feeding the Children” for a full discussion).

State Rainy Day Funds have one sole purpose: to be used during economic downturns to minimize the extent of cuts to public services and to avert tax increases. Prior to this downturn, Oklahoma has been able to build up our Rainy Day Fund to just under $600 million. OK Policy just released a new issue brief arguing that, with the state facing a large budget shortfall and the prospect of cuts of 7 to 10 percent for most agency budgets, now is the right time to use a portion of the Rainy Day Fund.

Our argument is based on projections suggesting that revenues will begin to recover after next year, even as it takes several years to return to pre-downturn levels. Under the constitutional rules governing the Rainy Day Fund, once revenues begin to rise compared to the prior year, most of the Fund cannot be appropriated, even if there remain ongoing shortfalls compared to pre-downturn levels. This creates the strong possibility that unless we use a portion of the Fund next year, we will end up making deeper and more painful cuts than are necessary while leaving most of the Rainy Day Fund untouched during one of the worst recessions in decades. As we stated in a press release, “we could be facing a situation where the people and communities of Oklahoma are about to get drenched by budget cuts, while we are left holding on to an unopened umbrella.”

Read the rest of this entry »

Last week, my colleagues and I were treated to a superb overview on the U.S. and Oklahoma economic outlook by Chad Wilkerson, an economist who heads up the Oklahoma City Branch Office of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, as part of the Economic Security for Oklahomans meeting hosted by the Oklahoma Asset Building Coalition. Wilkerson’s message was fairly simple:

• The U.S. economy is very weak, but may be nearing the bottom. While unemployment is expected to rise even further over the coming months and Gross Domestic Product for 2009 may fall by the greatest amount in over 30 years, the declines may be stabilizing.
• The latest projections of the Federal Reserve’s Open Market committee are for “real GDP… to flatten out gradually over the second half of this year and then to expand slowly next year as the stresses in financial markets ease, the effects of fiscal stimulus take hold, inventory adjustments are worked through, and the correction in housing activity comes to an end.”
• Oklahoma was late to the economic downturn, but we are now shedding jobs at the same dismal rate as the nation as a whole, as can be seen from the chart.



Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City

• Oklahoma’s unemployment rate has soared from 3.8 percent to 5.9 percent in just the past six months. Other indicators of of economic distress, such as home prices, foreclosures, and delinquent loans confirm that the recession is now in full swing locally (The Fed’s website presents a number of key economic indicators for Oklahoma through February; also, see our most recent Numbers You Need for an overview of economic trends).

Read the rest of this entry »

It seems that with each passing day we hear news reports of companies cutting jobs, closing branches or plants, or slashing wages of the workers in order to prevent having to lay anyone off. Maybe that is why the recent news out of Oklahoma City drew national attention. Hobby Lobby is opening new stores in the middle of this downturn. Maybe that says something about people buying more crafts supplies in a recession, but it likely says something much more about the strength of the company. What was the real newsmaker though was the fact that they have raised their minimum wage for all workers to $10.00 an hour. Maybe this says something about David Green’s business savvy, but it says much more about the strength of his character.

I applaud the move to make the financial situations of his employees a little more manageable. The federal minimum wage is $6.65 an hour, which is $266 a week if you work full time. That is before taxes or any withholdings. The move to $10 means $400 a week, a 50 percent increase. It still represents only $20,800 a year before taxes…if you work 52 weeks a year with no time off. Making ends meet is getting harder and harder for families. However, many companies are cutting workers’ salaries or hours or even their jobs while rewarding executives. It is refreshing to see Hobby Lobby making their priorities and their ethics known. Maybe that example will inspire others. In the long run, they will probably benefit financially from treating their people well. They can have better retention and recruitment efforts, to say nothing about the good press. However, here in Oklahoma we know it is about more than that. We know that it is about treating people with respect and dignity…the way you would have them do onto you.