On Tuesday, the Board of Equalization certified a preliminary estimate of the revenues available for next year’s budget. The numbers confirm that while the worst of the fiscal crisis is over, the state is experiencing a slow, incomplete recovery that will fall far short of restoring key services to pre-downturn levels.

The preliminary FY ’13 estimates, developed by the Oklahoma Tax Commission and Office of State Finance, will form the basis for the Governor’s Executive Budget that will be delivered in early February; the Board will meet again in mid-February to provide revised estimates that will be binding on the 2012 Legislature. As we see in the chart below, collections to the General Revenue (GR) fund are expected to continue their recovery next year from their collapse during the recession of 2008-09. Next year’s GR is estimated at $5,540 million, which is 19.9 percent greater than FY ’10.  Yet next year’s revenues are expected to remain 7 percent below their levels of six years ago (FY ’07), even as the cost of providing services rises due to inflation, population growth, and increased caseloads. Read the rest of this entry »

For the eighteenth consecutive month since May 2010, General Revenue (GR) collections grew compared to the prior year. October GR was $24.3 million, or 6.3 percent, above collections in October 2010. All major taxes brought in more revenue than one year ago.

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The Office of State Finance today released General Revenue collections for July, the first month of FY ’12. Total collections were $385.0 million, which was $14.9 million, or 4.0 percent above July 2010, and $17.0 million, or 4.6 percent, above the certified estimate for the month. State Finance Director Preston Doerflinger noted:

While there was moderate growth in receipts, collections dipped from the overall double-digit growth rate for FY-2011.

While revenues continue to recover from their sharp decline during the downturn, the recovery remains only partial, as can be seen from this table:

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State Finance Director Preston Doerflinger yesterday announced that June General Revenue (GR) collections came in $78.1 million, or 15.7 percent, above last year and $66.2 million, or 13.0 percent, above the official certified estimate. The June collections brought to an end the 2011 fiscal year and confirmed the increasingly solid recovery of Oklahoma’s tax collections that has been apparent over the course of the year. As can be seen from the first chart, the final quarter of FY ’11 marked the second quarter in a row where revenues exceeded the prior year by over 12 percent and the fifth straight quarter of year-over-year quarterly revenue growth.

For the full year, General Revenue increased by $487.1 million, or 10.5 percent, from the depths of FY ’10. However, as we can see, revenue collections remain substantially below pre-downturn levels. This year’s GR came in 14.2 percent below FY ’08 and remains considerably below collections of five years ago, FY ’06. Read the rest of this entry »

This week, State Finance Director Preston Doerflinger announced General Revenue (GR) collections for May.  For the month, GR was $36 million, or 9.5 percent, above May 2010 and $25.4 million, or 6.5 percent, above the certified estimate. May collections would have been even higher but for the Legislature’s decision to allocate $21.4 million in oil revenues as supplemental funds for common and higher education. For the eleven months of FY ’11, revenues are $409.1 million, or 9.9 percent, above last year and $153.2 million, or 3.5 percent, above the certified estimate. In this blog post, we go a little deeper into the numbers with a series of brief observations and charts.

• May marks the 13th straight month that revenues showed improvement compared to the same month for the prior year. In each of the last seven months, revenues have come in at least 9 percent higher than the prior year.

• Read the rest of this entry »

The nation continues to show signs that it is emerging from the deep and prolonged economic recession that began in late 2007.  April’s edition of Numbers You Need, our monthly bulletin of key economic and budget trends, paints a mixed but mostly positive picture of economic recovery in Oklahoma. While the state was not the hardest hit during the recession, we saw noticeable spikes in unemployment, foreclosures, and bankruptcies, and increased reliance on social safety nets like food stamps.  Considering Oklahoma came late to the recession, might it also be late in joining the recovery?  That doesn’t appear to be the case.  The most recent data suggest that Oklahoma may be slightly outpacing the nation in two key areas of economic growth: personal income and employment.

Personal income growth in Oklahoma paints an encouraging picture of economic recovery over the last year.   Personal income is reported quarterly and encompasses all of the different kinds of income received by Oklahomans.  When personal income rises, so does the amount citizens have available to spend, save, or invest in the economy.  Tax revenues also increase with personal income, meaning states have more to spend on infrastructure and social services.  Since a large majority of small business income is reported as personal income, it is an excellent overall measure of the health and growth of the state’s economy.

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Yesterday, State Finance Director Preston Doerflinger announced that March General Revenue (GR) collections came in 9.3 percent above March 2010 and 10.5 percent above the certified estimate.  This marked the 11th straight month that GR showed improvement over the prior year. For the 3rd quarter of FY ’11, GR was up just under 14 percent from FY ’10. This marked the strongest year-over-year growth since 2005, the peak of the last economic cycle.

All major tax categories increased in March over the same month a year ago with the exception of the personal income tax. In a press release, the State Finance Directors downplayed the importance of this drop: Read the rest of this entry »

Yesterday, State Finance Director Preston Doerflinger announced state General Revenue (GR) collections for February.  The news was generally positive. February’s collections came in 12.0 percent higher than one year ago; this was the eleventh straight month that monthly GR collections were up compared to the prior year. However, February’s growth was not quite as robust as that seen in January, when collections rose by 19.5 percent. Read the rest of this entry »

Oklahoma’s tax system is broken. Despite a recovering economy, the state is unable to raise enough revenue to sustain core public services. The strains will only increase over time as we cope with a rapidly aging population, unfunded pension obligations, and decaying infrastructure.

But inadequate revenues is not the only problem. It’s just as important that the cost of supporting government is fairly distributed and does not privilege some businesses or individuals over others without good justification.

As we explain in an issue brief released today, Oklahoma’s sales tax has fallen victim to both of these problems. The economy has evolved so that services and online goods which are not covered by the sales tax make up a larger proportion of purchases. In addition, the legislature has granted a growing number of exemptions, many with questionable economic rationale. One report found that just 35.7 percent of all purchases in Oklahoma were covered by the sales tax in 2003, compared to 52.0 percent in1990. Trends in the economy make it likely that the situation has only gotten worse since then. Read the rest of this entry »

Since it’s such a busy time for Oklahoma Policy Institute, we’ve decided to dedicate a blog post to this week’s events, publications, and blog posts.

In state budget news, Tuesday’s blog reviews the latest monthly report of General Revenue (GR) collections, where for the 11th straight month revenue collections surpassed those of the same month a year ago.  Two caveats are in order: personal income tax collections remain sluggish, and revenues continue to come in far below pre-downturn levels.  Click below to watch our Director David Blatt on OETA this past week analyzing the latest budget numbers or see our newly-updated Budget Trends and Highlights for a concise overview of the state’s fiscal situation.

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The latest monthly report of General Revenue (GR) collections announced by Treasurer Ken Miller provided the strongest indications yet that state revenues are on a firm path to recovery. For the 11th time in the past 12 months, monthly revenue collections surpassed those of the same month a year ago; as the first chart shows, January’s growth of 19.5 percent was easily the strongest we have yet seen:

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On his first full day on the job, new State Treasurer Ken Miller got to announce relatively good news on the state revenue front. December General Revenue (GR) collections were up 13.0 percent from one year ago and were 4.3 percent above the certified estimate.

As can be seen from this chart, December’s collections represent the largest month-over-month increase since the recovery began:

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