Last week, Treasurer Scott Meacham presented the preliminary data on full-year collections to the state’s General Revenue fund for FY ‘10, which ended June 30th.  He emphasized both the magnitude of the decline in collections from the prior year – $945 million, or 17 percent – and the shortfall in collections compared to the initial certified estimate for the year, which, at 15 percent, may have been the largest mid-year shortfall in state history.

We’ve now gone further back to see where the drop in state revenue collections leaves us. The numbers are pretty striking:

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The latest edition of our monthly Numbers You Need bulletin reports on the most recent state personal income data that was put out last month by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the 1st quarter of 2010, state personal income grew by a healthy 0.9 percent in both Oklahoma and the nation, showing the strongest rate of growth since the 2nd quarter of 2008. Personal income grew in all but two states (North Dakota and South Dakota), with Mississippi leading the way (+1.6 percent). Oklahoma’s growth for the quarter ranked 28th among the states.

As can be seen in this chart, state personal income remains slightly below pre-downturn levels. Oklahoma’s  state personal income of $131.2 billion in the 1st quarter was 99.2 percent of the amount in the 3rd quarter of 2008 (amounts are seasonally adjusted at annual rates).  While state personal income for the nation as a whole declined more sharply than in Oklahoma during the worst of the recession, it, too, has recovered to just over 99 percent of pre-downturn levels.

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April General Revenue collections were announced this afternoon and provided further confirmation that while the fiscal free fall has now stopped, the return to pre-downturn levels is likely to remain long and slow. Overall, April’s collections of $512.3 million were almost exactly the same amount as last year’s collections of $513.4 million. Gross production taxes were up considerably compared to one year ago (+$21.4 million, 65.8 percent), while income taxes remained down (-$32.3 million, -11.5 percent). Read the rest of this entry »

Today’s announcement of the monthly General Revenue collections brought incontestable good news:

State revenue collections in March topped prior year collections for the first time since December 2008 and the official estimate for a second consecutive month, State Treasurer Scott Meacham announced today.

Collections beat the official estimate by an impressive $81.4 million, or 25.5 percent. For the third quarter of FY ’10, collections fell short of the estimate by just 2.4 percent; by comparison, for the second quarter, revenues were more than 27 percent below the estimate.

Compared to the same month in 2009, collections in March were $6.4 million, or 1.6 percent, higher. The chart below, which we have been using in recent months to put this year’s collections in a longer-term perspective,  reveals the extent to which March marks a sharp and decisive upturn in revenues. The month’s collections were back to just over 90 percent of the average collection for the same month over the past five years.  In each of the previous nine months, collections remained mired below 85 percent of their five-year average. Read the rest of this entry »

The latest state revenue collections announced today provided mixed news:

State revenue collections in February exceeded the official estimate for the first time since December 2008, but fell short of prior year collections for the same month, State Treasurer Scott Meacham announced today.

Preliminary reports show General Revenue Fund collections in February are $220.6 million. That amount is:

• $17.3 million, or 7.3 percent below the prior year; but,
• $0.8 million, or 0.4 percent above the estimate.

February collections were buttressed by $25 million in gross production taxes on oil that were allocated to the General Revenue Fund and by stronger-than-expected income tax collections. After tax refunds, the state took in net income tax collections of $10.7 million in February, whereas the official estimate was for a net loss of $9.1 million in income tax payouts. Read the rest of this entry »

We may never have expected to see the day when the announcement that monthly revenue collections had come in 16.7 percent below the prior year and 20.8 percent below the certified estimate would be taken as good news. But after the pummeling that revenue collections have suffered over the past 12 months,Treasurer Scott Meacham may be forgiven for putting a positive spin on January collections that were announced Tuesday:

Meacham said January’s numbers are somewhat encouraging, even though they remain below prior year collections and the official estimate.

“We’re not out of the woods yet, but we are seeing some positive movement,” he said.

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The latest monthly budget release (PDF) from Treasurer Scott Meacham provided some good news and some bad news. The bad news is that October revenues fell well short of projections, as they have in each month of the current fiscal year. General Revenue (GR) for October was 18.2 percent  below the official estimate and 23.7 percent below below last year’s collections. The good news is that the shortfalls are slightly less than in previous months. Over the first three months of FY ‘10, General Revenue collections averaged 26.0 percent below the estimate and 29.5 percent below prior year collections. October’s slightly improved performance led the Treasurer to declare:

I am cautiously optimistic that October collections could show our economy has finally bottomed and we may start seeing some recovery in actual revenue collections. Read the rest of this entry »

The continued weakness of natural gas prices and production is the most important factor accounting for Oklahoma’s disappointing revenue collections.  July collections from natural gas production to the General Revenue Fund (GRF) totaled just $22.2 million in July -  a 75 percent decline from revenues for the same month a year ago, and $42.1 million less than the estimate certified in February by the State Board of Equalization. More than half of the total revenue shortfall in the GRF can be attributed directly to falling revenues from the gross production tax on gas. Read the rest of this entry »