As you’ve no doubt already heard, the worst fears about state revenue collections in the beginning of the new fiscal year were confirmed yesterday with the release of July General Revenue (GR) collections. The Treasurer’s office announced that July revenues were down 26.3 percent compared to a year ago and came in 18.1 percent below the certified estimate upon which current year appropriations were based. This year’s July GR collections were not only $120 million below last year’s; they were the lowest since FY ‘03, at the depth of the previous recession, without adjusting for inflation or the growth in the overall state budget in the intervening years. The sole glimmer of good news in yesterday’s announcement: July’s 26.3 percent decline in revenue collections compared to the same month in the prior year was actually slightly less than the year-to-year declines suffered in June (- 30.1 percent) and May (-27.7 percent). This suggests that the state budget may have already hit rock bottom. However, the climb back up will likely be long and will definitely be hard.

July’s revenue shortfall led Treasurer Scott Meacham to implement an immediate 5 percent across-the-board cut to agency appropriations for the month of August. The Treasurer said that he will be meeting with Governor Henry and legislative leaders to discuss how to handle the budget crisis, stating:

“We have several options. These include potential use of the Rainy Day Fund, tapping additional federal stimulus money and other responses,” Meacham said. “However, I would warn state agencies that additional cuts may very well be coming.”

For now, implementing cuts to all agencies in equal proportion to their share of appropriations from the GR fund is the only course that is constitutionally available. This approach, however, is unable to take into consideration the differing capacity that agencies have to absorb budget reductions and the differing impact of potential cuts on services that are essential to the health, well-being, and security of Oklahoma families and communities. In a blog post last month, OK Policy suggested an approach for dealing with shortfalls, including being ready to call the Legislature back into Special Session in the fall and tapping the Rainy Day Fund to minimize the extent and severity of cuts. We will continue to monitor the budget situation closely, and in collaboration with policymakers and partners in the community, be working to develop recommendations and strategies for how to proceed.

Last week, State Treasurer Scott Meacham unveiled the the state revenue report for June, 2009. Revenue was below the previous year, for both  the last  month and the fiscal year as a whole, as we reported earlier.

It’s natural to wonder what could happen in the just-started budget year, FY ‘10. Even though it will be a month until the first months’ revenue are known, Meacham was willing to speculate:

It appears very likely at this point that Fiscal Year 2010 revenues will be less than
originally estimated by the tax commission. That means a revenue shortfall is probable.

This week, Meacham and others are talking about what to do about it. According to the Tulsa World,

Cutting appropriations to agencies would be the first action. Meacham is asking state agency directors, many of whom are dealing with 7 percent cuts this fiscal year, to look for further reductions because of the likelihood of a revenue shortfall. … If the revenue shortfall is prolonged or steep, budget cuts likely won’t be enough, Meacham said. When cuts start affecting employees and vital services, the rainy day fund has to be considered.

It may be premature to declare a revenue shortfall when we haven’t seen any revenues for FY ‘10. While recent trends have been quite discouraging, most economists expect a rebound to take hold soon.A growing economy in the spring of 2010 can make up for some bad months this summer and fall. Further, our Constitution only allows the Legislature to appropriate 95 percent of certified revenues; we can absorb a 5 percent shortfall for the year.

Whether or not there’s a shortfall, though, we can assess the tools we have available and see if we can improve them in a way that helps this year and beyond. We should use these tools–now and in the future–to be sure we maintain adequate and consistent public services for Oklahomans. Here are some suggestions: Read the rest of this entry »