Day-after thoughts on SQ 744
Several months ago, with polls showing SQ 744 ahead by a two-to-0ne margin and supporters announcing that the National Education Association had committed over $3 million to the Yes campaign, many thought that the measure’s passage was a slam-dunk. Subsequent polling showed a sharp fall-off in support for 744, and by the final week of the campaign, most observers were expecting its defeat. It’s unlikely, however, that anyone anticipated the magnitude of the final margin: 81.4 percent opposed versus just 18.6 percent in favor. Ultimately, opposition to SQ 744 outpolled everything else on yesterday’s ballot, including support for such popular ballot ideas as voter ID and English as the state’s official language.
What happened? My sense is that the defeat of SQ 744 was the result of its opponents ability to convincingly build three arguments. The first was the argument, which OK Policy can claim some credit for having developed, that increased K-12 funding of the magnitude required by SQ 744 would necessarily come at the expense of health care, corrections, higher ed, and other areas of state government. On the one hand, I’m not sure this argument directly swayed a large portion of the electorate. Few voters likely voted no on SQ 744 out of concern for kids in foster care. Many voters believed that common education should be a higher priority, and Yes on 744 proponents were at least somewhat effective at countering the idea that the measure couldn’t be paid for by pointing to tax breaks and politician’s perks as a funding source. However, the argument helped persuade leading politicians and opinion leaders, including those acknowledged as committed advocates for public education and children, to take a strong stand against SQ 744, giving the No side respectability while putting SQ 744 proponents on the defensive. At the same time, from the standpoint of building a coalition and mounting a campaign, the fear of being left with a shrinking share of the budget pie certainly mobilized organizations whose interests were put at risk by 744′s passage to raise money, get involved and spread the word among their members.
The second argument against SQ 744 that seemed to reso Read the rest of this entry »


