The Oklahoman recently ran an editorial calling attention to the especially heavy toll that the current recession is having on male workers nationally and here in Oklahoma. A new issue brief from Economic Policy Institute, using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and Current Population Survey, provides some startling state-level data that bears out this point.

In the 4th quarter of 2007, which marked the onset of the national recession, Oklahoma’s unemployment rate was 3.4 percent for men and 4.2 percent for women. In the just-completed 2nd quarter of 2009, while the female unemployment rate had inched up a mere 0.2 percentage points to 4.6 percent, the male unemployment rate had soared 4.2 percentage points to 7.6 percent. Thus,  over a span of eighteen months, the job market switched from one where women were somewhat likelier than men to be unemployed to one where the male unemployment rate is a full three percentage points higher than that of women.

Oklahoma’s gender profile mirrors the national picture but in somewhat more extreme form.  Nationally, unemployment rates for females at the start of the recession were 0.2 percentage points higher than for males (4.9 percent compared to 4.7 percent), a smaller gender gap than in Oklahoma. Today, the male unemployment rate for men nationally is 3 percentage points higher for men than for women (10.7 percent compared to 7.7 percent), the same size gap as in Oklahoma.

The Oklahoman’s explanation for what has happened is persuasive and is echoed by others who have reported on the subject :

The recession is hitting hardest on sectors over which men have traditionally dominated — construction, heavy manufacturing, mining, etc. — and hitting the lightest on sectors where women have traditionally ruled — education, health care, government service.

Looking ahead, the gender gap is expected to worsen as unemployment levels remain high over the next year. EPI’s report includes projections for the 2nd quarter of 2010, when economic forecasters expect unemployment to peak. They predict Oklahoma’s unemployment rate will rise to 7.3 percent for all workers; for men, unemployment is projected to be 9.0 percent (a 1.2 percentage point increase from 2009), compared to 5.3 percent for women (a 0.7 percentage point increase from 2009).

EPI’s report also shows that ethnic minorities – African Americans and Hispanics – are being hurt worse than Whites during the downturn and that these disparities will also worsen over the next year. Due to inadequate sample sizes, EPI was unable to provide estimates of unemployment rates by ethnicity for Oklahoma.

The loss of male jobs during this downturn is likely to have far-reaching consequences for the economy, communities, and families that will take a long time to fully understand and address. Will we see  more men move into traditionally female occupations in the education and health care sectors? Will we see shifts in family formation and child-rearing roles if more women become the primary breadwinners? Let’s hope that policymakers start soon to think about these questions and begin to think about crafting solutions to ensure that the economy that emerges out of this downturn is one that provides opportunities for all.

Sunday’s Tulsa World reports that one of many important decisions left to the last week of the legislative session is whether to modernize Oklahoma’s unemployment insurance (UI) system to qualify for $75 million in additional federal stimulus money. According to Governor Brad Henry’s spokesman Paul Sund,

There is no downside to accepting the dollars. If we reject them, there is the risk that Oklahoma businesses may ultimately be asked to pick up the tab if or when unemployment funds run short.

In April, we released an issue brief that points out that Oklahoma needs to make minor changes to qualify for the funding:

1. Make the “alternative base period” (the period for which earnings are counted to determine unemployment compensation) permanent. Oklahoma adopted an alternative base period in 2002 but it is suspended when the balance of the unemployment trust fund falls. This is a fiscally sound requirement, but it also can cut unemployment benefits when they are needed most.
2. Expand the definition of “compelling family circumstances” that allow a worker to collect unemployment when leaving a job voluntarily. The new circumstances–domestic violence, transfer of a spouse,  and illness of the worker or family member–help make the UI system better fit today’s families.
3. Cover workers seeking part-time jobs if their previous work experience is part-time.

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Last week, my colleagues and I were treated to a superb overview on the U.S. and Oklahoma economic outlook by Chad Wilkerson, an economist who heads up the Oklahoma City Branch Office of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, as part of the Economic Security for Oklahomans meeting hosted by the Oklahoma Asset Building Coalition. Wilkerson’s message was fairly simple:

• The U.S. economy is very weak, but may be nearing the bottom. While unemployment is expected to rise even further over the coming months and Gross Domestic Product for 2009 may fall by the greatest amount in over 30 years, the declines may be stabilizing.
• The latest projections of the Federal Reserve’s Open Market committee are for “real GDP… to flatten out gradually over the second half of this year and then to expand slowly next year as the stresses in financial markets ease, the effects of fiscal stimulus take hold, inventory adjustments are worked through, and the correction in housing activity comes to an end.”
• Oklahoma was late to the economic downturn, but we are now shedding jobs at the same dismal rate as the nation as a whole, as can be seen from the chart.



Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City

• Oklahoma’s unemployment rate has soared from 3.8 percent to 5.9 percent in just the past six months. Other indicators of of economic distress, such as home prices, foreclosures, and delinquent loans confirm that the recession is now in full swing locally (The Fed’s website presents a number of key economic indicators for Oklahoma through February; also, see our most recent Numbers You Need for an overview of economic trends).

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