Is Oklahoma due for a change in direction on the budget? (Capitol Updates)

Steve Lewis served as Speaker of the Oklahoma House of Representatives from 1989-1991. He currently practices law in Tulsa and represents clients at the Capitol.

The turning of a new year is a time when people tend to reflect on the past and look toward the future. I’ve been thinking about the past few legislative sessions and what they mean for the upcoming session. A famous quotation from Shakespeare comes to mind that says “what’s past is prologue.” I’m not strong on interpreting literature, but I suppose this means that what has happened in the past leads to what will happen next. Or said another way, it could mean that the past provides the context for what will happen next. Or it could simply mean we’re in for more of the same.

If you look strictly at the numbers, the reality of Shakespeare’s words will haunt us. The past few sessions have been marked with budget holes. The Equalization Board has predicted another budget hole, this time of $868 million. Legislators have responded by filling the budget holes with patching together “one time money” from various sources, borrowing money through issuing bonds, budget cuts, and small tax and fee increases. Sure enough, the actions of past years have produced the context for next year.

But there’s a law of physical nature that sometimes serves as an analogy for what happens in human affairs. Sir Isaac Newton’s third law of motion states that for every action there is an opposite and equal reaction. We see this happen sometimes in public policy. People move in one direction for a while but then become dissatisfied with the status quo and push back. It’s nearly impossible to predict when this will happen, how strong the pushback will be, and when or whether it will cause a change in direction. Unlike physical objects, it’s hard to measure the strength of people’s feelings.

It seems that our leaders sense the need for some shift in direction. The governor and some legislators are talking about the need for significant new revenue. The practice of using short-term funding to pay for long-term needs is being roundly criticized. Whether this talk will lead to action is yet to be seen, beginning in February. We have new leaders in many key legislative posts and a large class of new members. The prologue they will write for Oklahoma’s future is yet to be written. We have reason for hope.