Reading the tea leaves on Oklahoma incumbents who lost in the primary (Capitol Updates)

Steve Lewis served as Speaker of the Oklahoma House of Representatives from 1989-1991. He currently practices law in Tulsa and represents clients at the Capitol. You can find past Capitol Updates archived  on his website.

Two House members and one senator were defeated in the June 28 primary: Rep. Ken Walker (R-Tulsa); Rep. Dennis Johnson (R-Duncan) and Sen. Corey Brooks (R-Washington.) Two other legislators, Rep. Donnie Condit (D-McAlester) and Rep. Charles Ortega (R-Altus), had very close races but pulled out narrow victories. Sometimes democracy is hard to figure out. If I had to pick three incumbents who would lose in their primaries this year, I doubt these would have topped the list. Incumbents are rarely defeated, but the combination of a serious and qualified opponent who understands the hard work it takes to win an election can make for a tough re-election. And widespread voter dissatisfaction will put some challengers over the top.

I live in Rep. Ken Walker’s district. Although I could see evidence of his opponent, Tulsa Crime Prevention Network Executive Director Carol Bush’s work through signs in yards throughout the neighborhood and social media, I was still surprised to see Walker defeated. He was first elected in 2012 as a more conservative candidate than his more mainstream Republican opponent. Walker had the strong support of Congressman Jim Bridenstine who was swept back into office in the same Republican primary. I don’t know if this is reflective of a subtle change of philosophy in the district or just the results of a good opponent who worked hard together with the aforementioned voter dissatisfaction.

The other two incumbent defeats came in the Duncan area in near Southwest Oklahoma. Rep. Dennis Johnson was running to serve out his last two-year term after 10 years in the House. He served as Majority Leader 4 years ago during the term of House Speaker TW Shannon. Johnson was a downtown Duncan business owner who fit the mold of business conservative. He supported tax cuts, smaller government and school vouchers. His Republican opponent, Marcus McEntire, is a Duncan business owner with a seminary education. McEntire had the support of public education groups and seemed to capitalize on the level of voter dissatisfaction in the area. Rep. Johnson, as a 10-year incumbent, was apparently seen as part of the problem. This may be a shift to a bit more moderate governing philosophy.

In the Senate race, Sen. Corey Brooks was defeated by Paul Scott who, on paper, looks a lot like Brooks. Brooks, an Oklahoma Baptist University graduate, was a social conservative with a ranching background. Scott, also a leader in the Baptist church, has a ranching background and has built a successful small business in Duncan. Brooks may have just been beaten by a better-known candidate with perhaps a geographical advantage in the district and the benefit of not being an incumbent this year. Brooks was completing his first term in the Senate, which is usually the most vulnerable time for an incumbent. He was open to blame for the current state of affairs, but he hadn’t really had time in the Senate to show a lot of accomplishments. It remains to be seen if this change has any big picture meaning.