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What’s up this week at Oklahoma Policy Institute? The Weekly Wonk shares our most recent publications and other resources to help you stay informed about Oklahoma. Numbers of the Day and Policy Notes are from our daily news briefing, In The Know. Click here to subscribe to In The Know.
This Week from OK Policy
H.R. 1’s hidden costs: What the federal megabill really means for Oklahoma: H.R. 1, also called the One Big Beautiful Bill, is a federal reconciliation law passed in 2025 that delivers large tax cuts to corporations and high-income households while reducing long-term federal revenues. Research and analysis from OK Policy and our partners examine what these changes mean for Oklahoma’s future and highlight the need for policies that strengthen, rather than strain, the foundation our communities depend on. [OK Policy]
Policy Matters: Silence will never create change: In Oklahoma, one of the most common political refrains isn’t anger or even apathy. It’s resignation. “It doesn’t make a difference.” “Lawmakers don’t listen anyway.” That belief is understandable. Too often, policy decisions feel distant, predetermined, or disconnected from everyday life. But it’s also wrong — and it’s a belief that benefits the people already holding power. [Shiloh Kantz / The Journal Record]
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From OK Policy’s YouTube channel: #PolicyMatters: Silence definitely won’t lead to change
What Oklahoma got right with tobacco lawsuit settlement money (Capitol Update): Looking at how other states have handled their funding from the Master Settlement Agreement, what Oklahoma has done through the constitutional trust is a point of pride. [Steve Lewis / Capitol Update]
OK Policy in the News
Lawmakers Seek Balance in Oklahoma’s Landlord-Tenant Act: Oklahoma had more than 45,000 evictions filed in each of the past four years, which critics blame on the weakness of the state’s Landlord-Tenant Act. Sabine Brown, Housing Senior Policy Analyst for Oklahoma Policy Institute, said the Landlord-Tenant Act favors landlords and often harms tenants. [Oklahoma Watch]
Youth organization hosts state budget information event: A local non-partisan organization hosted an informational event to educate young people about state government on Jan. 9. Oklahoma Youth for Change showcased a breakdown of how Oklahoma plans to spend its money in 2026. The event will feature guest speaker Aanahita Irani Ervin from the Oklahoma Policy Institute. [KSWO]
Weekly What’s That
Triggered tax cuts are automatic reductions in tax rates when public revenue meets a fiscal target. Instead of lawmakers proposing legislation annually and voting on specific tax cuts, these triggers automatically lower tax rates — and revenue — when certain benchmarks are met. These benchmarks are set by the legislature and put into statute that was voted on previously.
Proponents say that automatic triggers lower tax rates when revenue exceeds a certain amount, return money to taxpayers, and avoid government bloat without harming public funding. Opponents say this approach lets current policymakers ensure future tax cuts while avoiding responsibility for budget shortfalls those tax cuts create down the line. Current lawmakers get to claim credit for future tax cuts while avoiding challenging decisions like spending cuts or increasing regressive taxes, like sales taxes, to make up the difference. Instead, these challenging decisions fall on future lawmakers who did not vote for the trigger tax cuts to begin with. They also argue that triggered tax cuts, and the spending reductions they could force, threaten future funding for critical services like education and health care.
Oklahoma lawmakers have passed triggered personal income tax cuts three times since 2010. Two of those cuts — in 2012 and 2016 — needed to be overturned because they created harmful budget shortfalls. The third time was in 2025, when Oklahoma lawmakers enacted House Bill 2764 , which includes language that could trigger tax cuts in the future if certain revenue requirements are met. This bill also reduced the personal income tax rate by 0.25 percent and eliminated three of six tax brackets effectively immediately. In the December 2025 Board of Equalization meeting , the Oklahoma Management and Enterprise Services presented the process to determine if the criteria described under HB 2764 has been met for the triggered income tax cut to go into effect.
Look up more key terms to understand Oklahoma politics and government here.
Quote of the Week
“If people are going to the doctor and they don’t have insurance, these costs are then just shifted. They’re shifted to hospitals, ultimately to the community and the taxpayer.”
– Elizabeth Lukanen, executive director of the State Health Access Data Assistance Center at the University of Minnesota, warning that the loss of enhanced premium tax credits is pushing coverage gaps that strain the broader health care system. [Oklahoma Voice]
Op-Ed of the Week
States Can Push Back Against Reckless Federal Tax Policy. Here’s How.
Last summer President Donald Trump and his congressional allies enacted a deeply unpopular package of tax and spending cuts that will funnel more than $1 trillion over the next decade to multinational corporations and America’s wealthiest elite. The package makes historically sharp cuts that will take away many families’ health care and food assistance while also adding $4 trillion to our national debt.
In the wake of such federal recklessness, attention is now turning to the states, which face large added costs and significant budget risks due to the new federal law. State lawmakers don’t have to take this sitting down. Quite the contrary: They now have an enormous opportunity to start getting our country back on track by protecting and raising their own resources to improve the lives of everyday Americans.
Numbers of the Week
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25% – Fully 25 percent of households in the bottom of half of the income distribution report experiencing food insecurity or not being able to pay their rent, mortgage, or utility bill compared to 8 percent of households in the top half. This is because households with incomes in the bottom half of the distribution (less than $70,000 in 2023) spend almost 90 percent of their incomes on basic items: utilities, groceries, health care, transportation, and shelter. [Center on Budget and Policy Priorities]
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-43,488 – The drop in the number of Oklahomans enrolled in ACA Marketplace plans in 2026 compared to 2025. The decline follows a sharp spike in ACA premiums, which made coverage less affordable and pushed many people out of the Marketplace. [Center for Medicaid and Medicare Services]
- View the 2025 ACA Marketplace enrollment numbers here
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$1.1 Billion – Raising Oklahoma’s minimum wage to $15 would create higher earnings and increased spending that would boost the state’s GDP by $1.1 billion annually. Additionally, employers would benefit from an estimated $880 million in productivity gains, driven by lower turnover and higher worker retention. [Scioto Analysis]
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96% – In Oklahoma City, 96% of residential land is zoned for only detached single-family homes by right. Cities and states can use zoning reform to address their housing shortages and rising housing costs. [OK Policy]
What We’re Reading
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A Record of Historic Harm in the First Year of Trump’s Second Term: The Trump Administration and congressional Republicans advanced one of the most radically regressive policy agendas in our nation’s history during the first year of President Trump’s second term. As a result, tens of millions of people will be less able to meet the growing cost of their basic needs — whether it’s affording groceries, seeing a doctor, keeping the power on, or paying the rent — even as the wealthiest households get a windfall of more tax breaks. At the same time, President Trump and his Administration have undermined and corrupted many basic functions of government, including the proper and timely allocation of funds approved by Congress, leading to more disruption and harm. [Center on Budget and Policy Priorities]
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Understanding the Extraordinary Increase in ACA Premiums in 2026: ACA Marketplace premiums jumped sharply in 2026 after years of relatively slow growth, driven largely by policy changes rather than failures of the ACA itself. The expiration of enhanced premium tax credits reduced enrollment and left a sicker, higher-cost risk pool, while broader federal policy shifts and regulatory uncertainty pushed insurers to price in additional risk. Reduced competition in many states — especially rural areas — further contributed to higher premiums. Despite the spike, prior years show the ACA effectively restrained premium growth when stable subsidies, strong enrollment, and competitive markets were in place. [Urban Institute]
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Minimum Wages and Oklahoma’s Labor Market: Oklahoma’s labor market is characterized by widespread low wages, slow wage growth, and persistent disparities by race, gender, and geography, even though unemployment is relatively low. The report finds that many workers remain trapped in low-quality, unstable jobs that limit economic security and contribute to reliance on public assistance. Raising the minimum wage is presented as a tool to strengthen job quality, reduce low-wage work, and narrow gaps between rural and urban workers and across demographic groups. Overall, the analysis frames higher wages as a way to improve both worker stability and the broader health of Oklahoma’s economy. [Scioto Analysis]
- How to Change the Politics Blocking the Housing We Need: So why aren’t we addressing the core issues around creating more housing? It boils down to politics. If we’re serious about lowering housing costs, we need to acknowledge and design around the political realities that stand in the way of meaningful action. Local politicians resistant to new housing aren’t hostile to affordability; often, they’re simply responding to the political incentives in front of them. Lowering costs means shaking up who has power at the local level and building units faster so that time-limited politicians can take credit for progress. Our policies should reflect these political realities, not wave them away. [Governing]
