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What’s up this week at Oklahoma Policy Institute? The Weekly Wonk shares our most recent publications and other resources to help you stay informed about Oklahoma. Numbers of the Day and Policy Notes are from our daily news briefing, In The Know. Click here to subscribe to In The Know.
This Week from OK Policy
SB 1027 would exclude millions of registered voters from signing initiative petitions: Oklahoma’s initiative petition process is an effective and secure way for citizens to serve as a check on our state government and our elected officials. However, Senate Bill 1027 would place arbitrary restrictions on how many signatures could be collected from each county for an initiative petition. SB 1027 would exclude millions of registered voters in Oklahoma from signing initiative petitions. [Cole Allen / OK Policy]
Oklahoma should do better for vulnerable youth. Here are some bills this session that can do just that: Oklahoma has an obligation to care for vulnerable youth in our legal and foster systems. This session, Oklahoma legislators have the chance to build upon recent progress to make benefits more accessible and enshrine protections for vulnerable youth in the legal and foster systems. As lawmakers are considering bills during the next few weeks, they should support bills that connect Oklahoma youth to services that help them enter adulthood successfully. [Jill Mencke / OK Policy]
Policy Matters: Two lies and a truth: If you’ve ever sat through a team-building workshop, you’ve probably played the game “Two Truths and a Lie.” You share two real facts and one lie about yourself, while your coworkers try to guess the fib. But when it comes to politics and public discourse these days, it feels like we’re playing a much more dangerous version of that game—one I’d call “Two Lies and a Truth.” Unfortunately, it’s not just a game anymore; it’s becoming the way things work. And the process creates a handful of winners with way too many losers. [Shiloh Kantz / The Journal Record]
Lawmakers facing tough fiscal decisions, considering withdrawal from Rainy Day Fund (Capitol Update): With seven weeks remaining before mandatory sine die adjournment on May 30, appropriations committee members and leadership are now focusing on the Fiscal Year 2026 budget, which starts July 1, 2025. Senate Appropriations Chair Chuck Hall, R-Perry, said recently that appropriators are considering a withdrawal from the Rainy Day Fund to shore up FY26 appropriations. [Steve Lewis / Capitol Update]
Weekly What’s That
Under the Oklahoma Constitution, citizens have the power to repeal legislation via veto referendum. Article V, Section 3 states:
Referendum petitions shall be filed with the Secretary of State not more than ninety (90) days after the final adjournment of the session of the Legislature which passed the bill on which the referendum is demanded. The veto power of the Governor shall not extend to measures voted on by the people. All elections on measures referred to the people of the state shall be had at the next election held throughout the state, except when the Legislature or the Governor shall order a special election for the express purpose of making such reference. Any measure referred to the people by the initiative or referendum shall take effect and be in force when it shall have been approved by a majority of the votes cast thereon and not otherwise.
To put a veto referendum on the ballot requires signatures equal to 5 percent of voters in the last Gubernatorial election. Based on votes cast in the 2022 election, a veto referendum would require 57,664 signatures to get on the ballot. After a veto referendum is drafted, it goes through a lengthy process which can include various legal challenges.
There have been 20 veto referendums in Oklahoma history, but none since 1970 (an unsuccessful 1991 effort to repeal House Bill 1017 was conducted through a proposed constitutional amendment, not a veto referendum). In 2018, a veto referendum campaign (State Question 799) to overturn HB 1010xx, a revenue-raising measure that passed with 3/4 support from both chambers, was struck down by the Oklahoma Supreme Court. In August 2019, a veto referendum effort was launched to challenge HB 2597, which allowed for the permitless carry of firearms in Oklahoma; the veto referendum effort failed to gather enough signatures to make it on the ballot. In 2021, a veto referendum effort to repeal a bill (HB 1674) that protects from prosecution drivers who cause death or injury while escaping from a public protest, also fell short of gathering the requisite signatures.
Look up more key terms to understand Oklahoma politics and government here.
Quote of the Week
“It’d be really great if we could just get homelessness out of politics and all of us go back to that moral call — whatever your religion is — that moral call that says take care of people who are struggling.”
– April Doshier, executive director of the nonprofit Food and Shelter, speaking about a growing trend of Oklahoma legislation that criminalizes homelessness. [The Frontier]
- From OK Policy: Homelessness in Oklahoma – Information and Resources
Op-Ed of the Week
Opinion: Prayers and spreadsheets won’t balance this budget
In good times or bad, it can be tricky cobbling together the state budget, given all the competing demands. It’s even more challenging this year when fiscal experts deploying cutting-edge computer modeling are scrambling to make sense of moment-to-moment economic volatility.
Consider this: Roughly one-third third of state spending is underwritten by federal transfers. That’s 5.2% higher than the national average, according to the non-profit, non-partisan research organization USA Facts.
Yet, the second Trump Administration and its so-called Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) is taking a chain saw to agencies and spending. If it continues apace, what would be left? Where would the money go? Back to the states? To fund an extension of first-term Trump’s tax cuts that disproportionately benefited the wealthiest Americans? To pay for more border security?
What if the U.S. Department of Education is dismantled? Will federal dollars still flow to the states? Oklahoma schools – especially many in economically distressed rural areas – depend on it. So do special education programs that likely would not exist without federal dollars.
What if the feds cut in half the money sent annually to Oklahoma? That would be about $4 billion-plus gone, based on the $12.5 billion appropriated for the current fiscal year.
Never gonna happen, you say? Probably not. But cuts of $1 billion or $2 billion? That’s hardly unrealistic given the president’s agenda and a mostly compliant Republican Congress. Such cuts would blow a giant hole in Oklahoma’s budget, impacting vital services many seniors, children and poor depend on.
Also, consider this: State revenue growth consistently has slowed over the last year – a warning sign given Oklahoma’s traditionally boom-bust economy that remains heavily dependent on fossil fuels and agriculture.
Even more striking, oil prices this week dropped below $60 a barrel. But – wait – wasn’t there a time producers would have cheered such prices? Yes, but not so much anymore. The reason: it’s often more expensive to deploy today’s technology needed to extract oil.
Finally, consider this: Trump’s tariffs sent stock markets around the globe into freefall. Though he responded by pausing most tariffs for 90 days, he kept high tariffs on China. The volatility almost certainly portends higher prices for consumers, which could result in a recession – further impacting state revenues.
There is little Oklahoma lawmakers can do, of course, about Trump’s policies and the negative impact on an already dimming state revenue picture. Yet, they are constitutionally required to produce a spending blueprint for the 2025-26 fiscal year by 5 p.m. on May 30, one they hope – fingers crossed, candles lit, prayers uttered – will remotely reflect reality.
Thankfully, legislative leaders – publicly, at least – seem less than anxious to embrace Gov. Kevin Stitt’s call for a half-percentage-point cut in the state’s 4.75% personal income tax. That would cost the treasury an estimated $600 million a year.
As House Appropriations Committee Chair Chuck Hall, R-Perry, put it in remarks last week to the Tulsa Regional Chamber, “I tell people all the time that we are cash rich and revenue poor in the state of Oklahoma right now.
“We do not have the (estimated FY ’26) revenues that we had (in FY ’25). We are short $38 million.” Worse, he said, “we are $1.1 billion less in total recurring revenue than we were the year before.”
Lawmakers also would be wise to think twice before lifting the $250 million annual cap on private school tax credits. Why? Because the program, so far, has disproportionately benefited well-heeled Oklahomans – abysmal public policy given the state’s underfunded public school system.
Buckle up. The Legislature’s budget-writing, final seven weeks could get bumpy.
Numbers of the Week
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5%-11% – Of the fees and fines charged to fund justice system services, only a fraction of the assessed debt is collected each year; some officials estimate as little as 5 to 11 percent of fees get paid. [OK Policy]
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49% – Individual income taxes are by far the federal government’s largest single source of revenue. The federal government expects to collect about $2.5 trillion in individual income taxes in fiscal year 2024. That accounts for nearly half (49%) of its total estimated receipts for the year. [Pew Research]
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314 – The federal DOGE team has access to 314 separate fields of data about people who live in the U.S. This personal information is pulled from 23 data systems across eight agencies. They are working towards “consolidation” of these segregated records, raising the prospect of creating a kind of data trove about Americans that the government has never had before. [New York Times]
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52% – Share of births in Oklahoma during 2023 that were financed by Medicaid, compared to the national average of 41%. Oklahoma had the nation’s 4th highest share of births financed by Medicaid. [KFF]
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$0 – Tesla, valued at over $1 trillion, paid no federal income tax on its 2024 income of $2.3 billion. [Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy]
What We’re Reading
- How Do Fines and Fees Affect Families’ Well-Being?: Fines and fees are used by state and local governments to penalize people who violate the law, recover the costs of administering criminal legal services, and raise government revenues. They include speeding or parking tickets and court- or incarceration-related fines and fees. However, our analysis shows fines and fees can strain the well-being of families already experiencing financial instability and widen income and racial disparities. [Urban Institute]
- On Tax Day, Reject DOGE-Led Cuts to the IRS Workforce and Budget: The “Department of Government Efficiency” (DOGE) and the second Trump Administration have led a myriad of attacks on the IRS, targeting staff, enforcement funding, customer service for filers, and data privacy. These attacks on the IRS are costly and are the exact opposite of DOGE’s stated goals of reducing fraud and abuse. On Tax Day, Congress should use its power to resist the Administration’s efforts to decimate the IRS, so that honest taxpayers can file with ease and tax cheats pay the taxes they legally owe. [Center on Budget and Policy Priorities]
- The Dangers of Congress’s Latest Election Bill: After a busy 2024 election cycle, the Trump administration cut critical resources and funding for election security, leaving the nation’s voting infrastructure vulnerable. In the wake of that damaging pullback, election officials are now bracing for Congress to vote on the SAVE Act — an anti-voter bill that threatens the thousands of administrators running our elections. [Brennan Center for Justice]
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At least 26 states have launched their own version of DOGE: These states are simply rebranding longstanding efforts to undermine government in service of the wealthy. The Trump administration’s so-called Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) has wrought havoc on the federal government, diminishing its ability to perform essential work—like administering Social Security benefits for retirees, weather forecasting to predict tornadoes, and environmental pollution cleanup—while creating new inefficiencies and increased public costs. Now, many Republican governors and state lawmakers are demonstrating their loyalty to the Trump administration by setting up state-level versions of DOGE. [Economic Policy Institute]
- From OK Policy: Statement: DOGE-OK recommends health care cuts that are harmful, counterintuitive
- State and Local Fiscal Fallout From a Trumpian Economy: Trade wars, federal aid cutbacks and IRS layoffs will all have an impact on revenues, though the shocks may not be as bad as some fear. Still, for most jurisdictions budget and staffing freezes or cuts lie ahead. But for now leaders should resist the temptation to raid rainy day funds. [Governing]
