OKPOLICY.ORG
With the legislative session set to begin in February, I’m wondering how or how much the upcoming health insurance crisis will affect the next legislative session.
According to the American Hospital Association, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) passed by Congress will lead to a reduction of $2.4 billion in federal Medicaid spending on rural hospitals in Oklahoma over 10 years. According to Oklahoma Watch, The Center for Healthcare Quality and Payment Reform identified 47 rural hospitals in Oklahoma at risk of closing, with 23 of them at immediate risk of closing.
An analysis by the policy research organization KFF found that Oklahoma is projected to see $8-13 billion of OBBBA’s $793 billion in federal Medicaid cuts. The effect on individuals will be felt with work requirements some may have difficulty complying with, increased verification and eligibility checks increasing the likelihood of lost coverage due to administrative errors or missed paperwork, and higher costs to beneficiaries through copays.
Of perhaps more immediate concern to many will be the health insurance premium increases that will be caused by expiration of Affordable Care Act (ACA) premium tax credits, which were expanded in 2021. According to the Tulsa World, about 275,000 Oklahomans have health insurance through the ACA marketplace, with nearly all receiving some sort of subsidy.
According to the Oklahoma Association of Health Plans, the ACA base premiums are set to rise 29 percent due to increased cost of pharmaceuticals and other inflation that will be reflected in the premiums. Costs to many policyholders will be even greater if the ACA premium tax credits are allowed to expire at the end of December.
The problem with such drastic premium increases is younger, healthier people may opt to drop health insurance coverage altogether. They will no longer be contributing to the health insurance pool, which will make premiums higher for everyone.
If they have a serious injury or illness they will likely be unable to pay, passing the cost on to medical providers and hospitals that will raise their prices to compensate. And coming full circle, the higher healthcare costs will soon be translated into even higher insurance premiums.
Whether all this will ripen into issues for the legislature to grapple with next session is yet to be seen. It certainly should affect their thinking on tax and revenue issues. There are plenty of other issues ripe for action. And next year is an election year, with filing for legislative seats set for April 1 through 3. It should be an interesting, and hopefully fruitful, session.
