This hardly seems like a time to brag, but…

The State Board of Equalization yesterday certified official revenue projections for this year and next. Based on actual revenue collections through November and forecasting data for the next seven months, the various agencies involved in generating the certified estimate are projecting General Revenue collections for FY ’10 of $4.414 billion. In the absence of any official forecasts up until now, OK Policy’s policy consultant Paul Shinn developed our own revenue forecasts two months ago based on three months of collections and various economic trends and historical precedents. Our projection for FY ’10: $4.439 billion. (Click here for the forecasting brief and here for the technical memorandum of how the forecast was developed). For those without a calculator at hand, that’s a difference of $25 million, or 0.6 percent. As Adam Sandler might say, not too shabby.

On FY ’11 revenues, we projected General Revenue collections growing to $4.739 billion, while the Board of Equalization certified $4.449 billion. We’ll see whether the revised February certification moves us closer or further apart.

For a newly updated version of our Budget trends and Outlook presentation, which includes our multi-year projections suggesting that revenues will not fully recover to pre-downturn levels until at least FY ’13, click here.


Former Executive Director David Blatt joined OK Policy in 2008 and served as its Executive Director from 2010 to 2019. He previously served as Director of Public Policy for Community Action Project of Tulsa County and as a budget analyst for the Oklahoma State Senate. He has a Ph.D. in political science from Cornell University and a B.A. from the University of Alberta. David has been selected as Political Scientist of the Year by the Oklahoma Political Science Association, Local Social Justice Champion by the Dan Allen Center for Social Justice, and Public Citizen of the Year by the National Association of Social Workers.

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