OKPOLICY.ORG
What’s up this week at Oklahoma Policy Institute? The Weekly Wonk shares our most recent publications and other resources to help you stay informed about Oklahoma. Numbers of the Day and Policy Notes are from our daily news briefing, In The Know. Click here to subscribe to In The Know.
This Week from OK Policy
H.R. 1 could push Oklahoma’s health care system past its breaking point: Medicaid (aka SoonerCare) doesn’t just insure people — it sustains the hospitals, clinics, and health care providers that care for entire communities. House Resolution 1 (H.R. 1), the so-called One Big Beautiful Bill, threatens this foundation. By layering constant eligibility checks and new reporting rules onto an already strained system, the bill means providers see fewer insured patients, have less stable revenue, and provide more uncompensated care. The result is predictable: more hospital closures, longer drives for care, and deeper strain on the providers who remain. [Kati Malicoate / OK Policy]
Policy matters: Tax cuts and building a better future in Oklahoma: Every year, Oklahoma lawmakers must choose: invest public revenue in lasting solutions to our state’s real problems or chase short-term headlines. Too often, most lawmakers have prioritized immediate political gain, leaving our most pressing needs unaddressed. The easy wins — tax cuts, flashy press releases, and promises that prosperity will trickle down — haven’t worked. For decades, these choices have left our state with shrinking resources, deferred maintenance, and growing needs. [Shiloh Kantz / The Journal Record]
Poverty is a policy choice; ending it is one, too: Oklahoma has a poverty problem — but it isn’t just about how much money people have in their pockets. It’s also about how small we’ve allowed our expectations to become. For decades, the majority of our lawmakers have chased an elusive vision of prosperity through tax cuts and austerity, instead of doing the harder work of investing in our people, our communities and our future. That poverty mindset — a failure of vision as much as of resources — has held our state back. And until we confront it head-on, Oklahoma will continue falling short of what it could be. [Shiloh Kantz / The Oklahoman]
SB 1381 aims to curb unnecessary pretrial detention (Capitol Update): Oklahoma’s pretrial system faces a significant challenge with jail overcrowding. Oklahomans are jailed at a rate nearly 30% higher than the US average. Critically, 75% have not yet been convicted of a crime, giving us the 11th highest pretrial incarceration rate nationally. Senator Dave Rader, R-Tulsa, has pre-filed Senate Bill 1381 (SB 1381), to be known as the Pretrial Modernization Act of 2026. The bill, if passed, could help curb unnecessary detention in both county jail and Department of Corrections facilities. [Steve Lewis / Capitol Update]
OK Policy in the News
Detainee deaths still overshadow drop in population of Oklahoma County Detention Center: A legislative change to two state questions resulted in more money from the state going into diversion programs to ease the costs of pre-trial release programs, which are growing even as the jail itself saves money with them. The Oklahoma Policy Institute, a statewide think tank, explains. [The Oklahoman]
Weekly What’s That
Revenue Estimates/ Revenue Certification
Oklahoma makes official revenue estimates that determine how much the Legislature is allowed to appropriate in its annual budget. The Legislature is limited to appropriating no more than 95 percent of certified collections. Revenue estimates are certified three times each year:
- In late December, the State Board of Equalization certifies a preliminary estimate. This estimate becomes the basis of the Governor’s executive budget proposal.
- In mid-February, the Board of Equalization certifies a revised estimate considering changes in revenue collections and economic conditions. The February certification is binding on the Legislature and establishes the maximum amount it can budget under existing laws for the coming year.
- In late June, the Board may revise the official revenue estimate up or down only if the Legislature has made changes to the law that affect state revenue.
Revenue estimates for Oklahoma’s major taxes are prepared by the Oklahoma Tax Commission based on a model developed by an economist at Oklahoma State University. Other taxes and fees are estimated by other means.
Look up more key terms to understand Oklahoma politics and government here.
Quote of the Week
“Voters are understandably concerned about affordability and rising costs. But responsible tax policy requires clarity about tradeoffs. When a proposal promises relief in one place while remaining silent about where the tax bill will surface next, caution is warranted.”
— Ryan Kiggins, who teaches political science at the University of Central Oklahoma, writing in an op-ed about the dangers of eliminating property tax revenue, as proposed by SQ 842. [The Oklahoman]
Op-Ed of the Week
Opinion: State Question 842 risks robbing Peter to pay Paul
In Oklahoma, most people understand what it means to rob Peter to pay Paul. You don’t make a problem disappear — you just move it. Someone else ends up holding the bag. That bit of common sense matters as voters consider State Question 842, a proposal that would eliminate property taxes on owner-occupied homes.
To be clear, I don’t know anyone who enjoys paying taxes. I certainly don’t. But paying for the public services, infrastructure and governing institutions that secure our freedom and prosperity requires some measure of shared responsibility. There is no way to maintain a free society, safe communities or a growing economy without paying for the institutions that make them possible.
Numbers of the Week
-
$4 trillion – The size of the tax-cut package signed into law in July, delivering major benefits to corporations and the ultrawealthy while adding trillions to the federal deficit. These tax breaks were paired with deep cuts to programs like Medicare, Medicaid, and SNAP, reducing support for older adults and low-income families. [Congressional Budget Office]
-
$110 – The amount an Oklahoma parent qualifying for the state child tax credit would receive starting in 2026 — just 5% of the $2,200 federal credit. Expanding the credit’s size and reach would give families more meaningful support and strengthen efforts to reduce child poverty. [National Conference of State Legislatures]
-
$740 – The additional per-pupil funding increase received by school districts with lower shares of Black students compared to districts with higher shares nationwide, following economically progressive school finance reforms passed through 2017. While these reforms improved funding equity by income, they failed to reduce — and in some cases widened — racial funding gaps, highlighting how race-neutral policies can still reinforce racial inequality. [Brookings Institute]
-
35% – The share of U.S. families with children under age 6 who pay for child care and are pushed into poverty by these expenses — about 134,000 families each year. High child care costs can consume a substantial portion of household income, leaving many families struggling to meet basic needs. [Center for American Progress]
-
3.2x – How much longer Oklahoma’s median Medicaid call center wait time is compared to the national average. Oklahomans wait about 16 minutes, versus 5 minutes nationally, placing the state among the 10 worst in the country for call center delays. Notably, these wait times are already this high before new Medicaid work reporting requirements take effect — changes that are expected to further strain the system and increase delays. [Center on Budget and Policy Priorities]
What We’re Reading
-
Trump Goes Outside the Law to Give Even More Tax Cuts to the Wealthy: The Trump administration is using regulatory actions to grant additional tax advantages to corporations and high-income households — beyond what Congress authorized — especially by weakening the corporate alternative minimum tax and tailoring rules for asset-heavy sectors like crypto and private equity. These shifts expand tax burdens away from the wealthiest, undermine fairness in the tax system, and raise questions about accountability when regulatory agencies extend policy-making roles without explicit legislative mandates. [Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy]
-
State Child Tax Credits Boosted Financial Security for Families and Children in 2025: State child tax credits (CTCs) are proving to be powerful tools for boosting financial security among low- and middle-income families, and fifteen states have now enacted or expanded these credits. Key design features — such as making credits refundable, extending benefits to immigrant families, increasing benefits for younger children, eliminating phase-in requirements, and indexing amounts to inflation — significantly increase their effectiveness. Though recent federal reforms increased the CTC, some limits (like on refundability and access for immigrant households) still leave many children without full benefit. For states considering policy change, crafting credits with equity, broad eligibility, and sustainable funding can help reduce child poverty and make the tax code fairer. [Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy]
-
School finance reforms made funding more equal by income, but not by race: Nationally, state school finance reforms over the past few decades have succeeded in narrowing funding gaps between high- and low-income districts by directing more state resources to poorer communities. However, those same reforms have not reduced disparities in funding between districts with high and low shares of Black or Hispanic students, and in many cases the racial funding gap has grown wider. Because race-neutral, income-based formulas can’t fully counteract entrenched segregation and geography-based disparities, achieving racial equity in school funding will likely require more targeted strategies that explicitly address racial and ethnic gaps. [Brookings Institute]
-
Universal Child Care Can’t Be Done? Keep an Eye on What NYC Is Doing: New York City’s modest $10 million pilot launching free child care for children two and under marks a pioneering step toward universal early childhood support in a major U.S. city — signaling that child care is now a core priority for both families and policymakers. This initiative reflects growing political momentum from organized working parents and may inspire other jurisdictions to treat affordable child care not as a privilege, but as an essential public good. [Governing]
-
A Guide to Reducing Coverage Losses Through Effective Implementation of Medicaid’s New Work Requirement: States play a key role in preventing unnecessary Medicaid disenrollments by choosing policies that ensure continuous coverage, simplify renewals, and align administrative procedures with federal guidance. Strategies such as early outreach, pre-populated renewal forms, multi-channel communication, and coordinated data systems help eligible individuals stay enrolled even when incomes or circumstances change. Tailored supports for people with disabilities, limited English proficiency, or housing instability further reduce coverage gaps. Effective implementation of these practices strengthens beneficiary stability and improves access to care while maximizing federal funding and minimizing administrative churn. [Center on Budget and Policy Priorities]
