What’s up this week at Oklahoma Policy Institute? The Weekly Wonk shares our most recent publications and other resources to help you stay informed about Oklahoma. Numbers of the Day and Policy Notes are from our daily news briefing, In The Know. Click here to subscribe to In The Know.
This Week from OK Policy
Policy Matters: Lawmakers should solve problems, not hide them: Recent headlines have reminded me of an unsettling reality: too often, our lawmakers and decision makers aren’t solving our communities’ problems. They’re merely trying to make them less visible. All Oklahomans deserve to have their humanity heard and recognized. [Shiloh Kantz / The Journal Record]
Early budget picture signals Oklahoma returning to scarce funding (Capitol Update): This is no doubt going to be a tight fiscal year, unlike the past few years when the state’s economy produced remarkable amounts of state revenue. With at least a $191 million hole in the budget to start, it looks like Oklahoma will revert to form with scarce funding. The money stashed away in various accounts during the past few years may be a cushion, probably avoiding cuts to important state services. [Steve Lewis / Capitol Update]
Weekly What’s That
Revenue Failure/Revenue Shortfall
A revenue failure (or revenue shortfall) occurs when collections going to the General Revenue Fund over the course of a fiscal year fall below 95 percent of the certified estimate (see Revenue Estimates). The Oklahoma Constitution specifies that in the event of a revenue failure, each appropriated agency must be cut in equal proportion to their share of total appropriations from the General Revenue Fund. State statutes (62 O.S. § 34.49) directs the Director of the Office of Management and Enterprise Services to declare a revenue failure and reduce funds going to agencies by an amount estimated to bring spending into balance with revenue collections. There is nothing in statute or the Constitution that determines the timing of a revenue failure declaration or that specifies the size of cuts.
There have been nine revenue failures since 2000, in budget years 2002, 2003, 2009, 2010, 2016 (two), 2017, 2018 and 2020. The budget year 2009 cuts were later restored.
When a revenue failure is declared, the Legislature can use up to 3/8ths of the Rainy Day Fund to prevent or mitigate budget cuts. The Rainy Day Fund was tapped to address mid-year shortfalls in budget years 2003, 2010 and 2020. The Legislature has full discretion to decide which agencies will receive additional funds and in what amounts.
Look up more key terms to understand Oklahoma politics and government here.
Quote of the Week
“I know that the folks that want to eliminate all social services in Norman haven’t been able to win local elections, (or) enough of them to make that happen. It seems like, to me, they’re now going to attempt to use the power of the state to overrule the city and our voters.”
– Norman City Councilman Stephen Tyler Holman said regarding SB 484, which would prevent Norman and every other municipality in Oklahoma except Oklahoma City and Tulsa from using city funds to help the growing homeless population. [The Oklahoman]
Op-Ed of the Week
Supporters of House Bill 1449 tout it as a necessary clarification of legal definitions for “male” and “female,” tying them firmly to biological sex assigned at birth. But behind this rhetoric of rights lies something far more insidious: a calculated erasure of transgender and nonbinary Oklahomans, with consequences that will reverberate far beyond the walls of the Capitol. [Kati Malicoate / Oklahoma Voice]
Numbers of the Day
- $70 – Estimated benefit received by the lowest quintile of 2025 tax filers (earning up to $27,300) from the 2017 tax law, while the top 1% (earning more than $837,800) would receive an estimated benefit of $61,090. [Center on Budget and Policy Priorities]
- 30,000 – Estimated number of Oklahoma children with major depression who do not receive treatment. [America’s School Mental Health Report Card / Hopeful Futures Campaign]
- 13 – Number of states, including Oklahoma, that have minimum wages at the federal minimum wage rate, $7.25 per hour. Oklahoma’s minimum wage, which is tied to the federal rate, has not been raised in more than 15 years. In June 2026, Oklahoma voters will decide the fate of SQ 832 that would raise the state’s minimum wage. [U.S. Department of Labor]
- From OK Policy: SQ 832: Minimum Wage Increase, Information and Resources
- 77,344 – Shortage of rental homes affordable and available for extremely low income renters in Oklahoma. [National Low Income Housing Coalition]
What We’re Reading
- Policymakers Should Reject Trump, Republican Tax Agendas That Would Double Down on Failures of 2017 Tax Law: Following a campaign in which President-elect Trump promised to improve the economic circumstances of working-class people across races, it’s jarring that the incoming Trump Administration and Republican majority seem intent on rushing through an extension of the 2017 Trump tax law. That law was skewed to the wealthy, expensive, and failed to deliver on its promises. Instead of doubling down on this costly failure, policymakers should shift course and make better, more equitable choices. They should require wealthy households and corporations to pay their fair share. They should make the tax code work better for families with more modest incomes and people of color. They should support key investments and strengthen our fiscal outlook. [Center on Budget and Policy Priorities]
- Supporting Crisis Stabilization for Youth and Young Adults during Reentry: Research points to an overrepresentation of youth with behavioral health needs in the justice system, with nearly 70 percent having a diagnosable mental health disorder. This brief provides justice professionals who are responsible for youth and young adult case planning with best practice guidance on how to engage, collaborate, and partner with the systems that can address reentry needs and prevent crises that may lead to future justice system involvement. This guidance is drawn from both relevant research and lessons learned from Bureau of Justice Assistance-funded programs focused on reentry and crisis stabilization among youth and young adults. [Council of State Governments]
- Over 9.2 million workers got a raise on January 1 from 21 states raising their minimum wages — but not in Oklahoma: Twenty-one states increased their minimum wages on January 1, raising pay for more than 9.2 million workers by a total of $5.7 billion. In addition, 48 cities and counties raised their minimum wages above their state wage floors, mostly in California, Colorado, and Washington. [Economic Policy Institute]
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First-Time Homeownership Became Less Affordable Across Most of the United States in Recent Years: New homeownership became less affordable across much of the United States over the last five years. Swiftly rising house prices and higher borrowing costs have not been fully offset by wage gains, making homeownership less affordable in both metropolitan and rural areas. Although new homeownership is less affordable than in years past, slower housing price gains and steadily rising wages may offer some reprieve for housing affordability in the coming year. [Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City]